The Everest – Runner By Runner

The Wolf’s runner by runner guide to The Everest run this Saturday at Randwick.

The race is held over 1200m and it is officially the world’s richest race to be run on turf, carrying a purse of $10 million!

Here are The Wolf’s thoughts on The Everest.

Chautauqua ($6.50)

The Grey Flash, a six-time Group 1 winner who has been the benchmark for all Australian sprinters over the last three years, amassing an astonishing $8,376,935 for his connections.

Since returning to racing in Australia from Hong Kong earlier this year he has had his doubters, who have stated the Grey Flash is not “who he used to be”, but he put them to bed pretty quick by winning his third TJ Smith from a near impossible position at the rear of the field. He comes into The Everest off two midfield finishes, finishing seventh in the Group 2 The Shorts and sixth in the Group 2 Premiere Stakes.

He’s a hard horse to get a read on this prep, as both runs in this prep he has been put through the motions under hard riding from Brenton Avdulla. But this is his grand final, the race he has been set for before any other runner had even accepted for the race and whilst he’s up against it, The Wolf is keen to be on his side. He gets a strong tempo here from the likes of Deploy, Redzel and Vega Magic which should ensure he gets every chance from the rear and The Wolf expects ‘The Grey Flash” to be flashing down the centre of the track late.

Vega Magic ($4.80)

Ex-West Australian who transferred stables to Hayes/Hayes & Dabernig earlier this year and is unbeaten in three runs for them.

Unbeaten in 2017, Vega Magic has established himself as one of the premier sprinters and middle distance horses in Victoria; winning the Group 1 Goodwood over 1200, the Listed Regal Roller Stakes over 1200m and his two length demolition job in the Group 1 Memsie Stakes over 1400m. He beat a solid group of runners in the Memsie Stakes, finishing ahead of Group 1 winner’s Black Heart Bart, Hey Doc and Le Romain; all of which would be competitive in a race like The Everest. David Hayes has stated this horse “smashes” any other runner they put next to him in trackwork, which must be respected, and his last four wins haven’t been against pushovers.

The Wolf expects he’ll position himself on the speed and go very close from there. He’ll be finishing inside the top two.

Redzel ($7.50)

Group 1 Doomben 10,000 winner who is unbeaten in his last four runs.

His form leading into this is impossible to fault, but this will be his biggest test to date and with the predicted speed battle early, he could find himself doing a lot of work in the run. He’s trialled well leading into this and he makes his own luck in front, but The Wolf is confident a few will have his measure here.

Redkirk Warrior ($9.50)

Group 1 Newmarket winning sprinter who resumed with a two and a half length victory in the Group 2 Bobbie Lewis in preparation for this.

He’s very good on his day and his first up win showed that he is ready to fire for The Everest. He’s drawn very well in barrier 3, which sounds good, however with predicted speed from out wide, The Wolf suspects he might find himself in a tricky position midfield on the rails. He’ll run a solid a race, but The Wolf has a few ahead of him.

Clearly Innocent ($13)

Group 1 Kingsford-Smith winner who resumed with a solid third placing in the Group 2 Premiere Stakes.

Last start in the Premiere Stakes he flashed home for third, finishing behind In Her Time and English after settling back in the field on the fence. He maps to get a very soft run in transit from barrier 6 where Hugh Bowman will look to position him midfield, just behind the speed battle that will be ensuing up front. He’s progressed through the grades well since winning the Country Championship Final, but his best form is clearly at 1300m and beyond, which he doesn’t get here and on that, The Wolf is keen to take him on.

Deploy ($12)

Flying leader who won the Group 2 Theo Marks last start by almost four lengths.

His last start win was his biggest win to date and The Wolf suspects he can improve off that run here. His form prior to last start wouldn’t be competitive here, but he’ll put himself on the speed and give himself every chance at the front of the field. The Wolf is confident he’ll be run down late, but with his racing pattern he could be one to include in the exotics.

Fell Swoop ($51)

Multiple Group 1 placegetter who hasn’t won since April 2016 against a weak Victory Stakes field at Doomben.

He’s a perennial non-winner who consistently runs well but always finds one better. His last two runs have been fair without showing a great deal and if he wants to be winning here he’ll need to have improved. If he gets a soft track he’ll improve, but even then it won’t be good enough to be winning here.

Brave Smash ($41)

Japanese import who was beaten in a weak Listed race at Caulfield last start.

First up in Australia he placed behind Vega Magic in the Listed Regal Roller, which is an outstanding form reference for this. However, he’s raced against some very weak fields since this in Victoria and The Wolf is confident he won’t be competitive here.

English ($12)

Group 1 All Aged Stakes winner who finished a narrow second behind In Her Time last start in the Group 2 Premiere Stakes.

Last start she flew home to narrowly miss and if that performance is any indication she’ll be going close here. Against her is the barrier draw, she’s drawn 12/12 which will force Blake Shinn to either risk getting caught wide or just take her back to second last ahead of Chautauqua. She’s yet to get the better of Chautauqua and The Wolf is confident this won’t be changing here.

She Will Reign ($5.00)

Group 1 Golden Slipper who returned with a bang last start, beating home a quality field in the Group 1 Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley.

She was enormous last start, coming from well back in the field at Moonee Valley to score by a nose in the Group 1 Moir Stakes. She was utterly dominant that day and to put in a run like that, on a track that usually suits those on pace, is scary. She is very hard to fault coming into this, she’s a winner of 5/6 including twice at Group 1 level. She’s drawn barrier 2 here which makes things tricky, The Wolf expects Corey Brown will settle her on the fence and pray for a gap to open up in the straight which could make things difficult. He is expecting a big showing from this mare and with clear running, she’ll be right in the finish.

Houtzen ($31)

Magic Millions 2YO Classic winner who returned to the winner’s stall last start in the Group 3 Champagne Stakes at Moonee Valley.

She was dominant last start at Moonee Valley, getting all the favours from the front to enjoy a dream run in transit. She’ll need to step up here if she wants to be competitive and The Wolf is keen to oppose here.

Tulip ($71)

Golden Slipper placed filly who comes into this third up off a spell.

She was well beaten last start in the Group 2 Tea Rose Stakes and The Wolf is confident that she won’t be threatening anyone here.

In Her Time (Emergency) ($16)

Multiple Group 1 placegetter who was dominant when winning the Group 2 Premiere Stakes last start.

The best Everest runner that never was, she was awfully stiff to have not been awarded an Everest slot, especially off her last start win where she finished ahead of four current slot holders. Her last start was outstanding and if she’s made any improvement off that run, could go very close here. However, the likelihood of a scratching is low, which is unfortunate as The Wolf would be prepared to play her in his exotics.

Trapeze Artist (Emergency) ($21)

Gerald Ryan trained Group 1 winner who scored at any old odds last start in the Group 1 Golden Rose.

Suspect this bloke is better over 1400m and beyond, as opposed to the 1200m on offer here. Not in this.

Takedown (Emergency) ($101)

Three scratchings are very unlikely here.

Ball Of Muscle (Emergency) ($151)

Four scratchings are impossible. Won’t get a run nor would he go close if he did.

The Wolf’s Speed Map

Where he predicts the runners will settle after leaving the barriers.

The Wolf predicts a lot of speed in The Everest, with Deploy, Redzel, Vega Magic and Houtzen all flying out to fight for positions on the speed.

The Wolf’s Top 5

This is as a very competitive race with what appears to be a few winning chances. The Wolf is supremely confident in his selections.

1 – Chautauqua
2 – Vega Magic
3 – She Will Reign
4 – Deploy
5 – English

Bet on the latest The Everest market here.

More Racing and Sports Tips

Wednesday Wolf’s Racing Guide
Wolf’s Daily Tips
MLB Tips

Odds correct as of 2:00pm, Thursday 11 October.