Memsie Stakes – Runner By Runner

Horse betting

The Wolf’s runner by runner guide on the Group One Memsie Stakes at Caulfield.

Prince Of Penzance ($41)
The Prince used the Memsie to launch his Melbourne Cup campaign last spring too. Interesting that Fiorente (2013) and Green Moon (2012) also used the Memsie on route to Cup glory. As for his chances of winning, he’s unlikely to be here for anything more than a pipe opener. He savaged the line in Adelaide three months back but it was over the mile and against much inferior opposition.

Black Heart Bart ($2.50)
He’s not hard to find at $2.50 but even at that price he appeals. He has been an iron horse since transferring to Darren Weir running in Group Ones all over the country. The last time we saw him he went down fighting in the Straddie giving away 3.5kg to Under The Louvre. There is no better trainer than getting a horse to maintain his form than DK. Expect BHB to resume where he left off. The last six winners of the Memsie have all been first-up while the favourite has won 10 of the last 15.

Lord Of The Sky ($12)
His run in the Lawrence stepping out to 1400m was full of merit as he was carved up by The Cleaner. He was only 2L off the winner in a blanket finish. The Wolf does have a question mark over the strength of that race though. He’ll roll along as he does and if Charmed Harmony doesn’t make a pest of himself, expect another similar run here. Looks a place hope.

Charmed Harmony ($23)
Forget his Queensland winter form as he doesn’t go a yard the reverse way. His Bletchingly run was forgettable as he was never on the track before dropping out. We learnt nothing from that. A signifcant form reference for him is is narrow second to Black Heart Bart in the G3 Victoria Handicap back in March. He does love the Caulfield 1400m (8:3-2-0). Lord Of The Sky scratching helps him no end.

He Or She ($20)
Has won nine from 19 so he’s a pretty fair galloper! Struggled to tack on in the Doncaster Mile the last time we saw him but picked up late to run midfield. He ran a big race fresh last time in but that was against Dan Zephyr and General Groove. The barrier cruels any knockout chance he had as he’ll be giving away a massive start. Would need Charmed Harmony to really overcook it to figure.

Tashbeeh ($91)
Returned with an encouraging third behind Sooboog and Dibayani but he’s been thrown right into the deep end here at WFA second-up. He is an honest galloper so he’s little chance of disgracing himself but it’s hard to see him greeting the judge first. Doesn’t have the class. Especially from the wide draw.

Alpine Eagle ($14)
It’s time Alpine Eagle to stand up. The raps on him from the stable have always been huge but he has been found wanting at the top level to date. The noises coming out of the Tony McEvoy yard suggest he is a genuine stayer now as a five-year-old. The blinkers will sharpen him up but doubt he’ll have enough dash to reel in the key players.

Mahuta ($6.50)
Some horses handle the pressure of The Cleaner. Some don’t. We found out in the Lawrence that Mahuta doesn’t so he’ll be relieved that he isn’t here. Maps to tuck in behind Charmed Harmony from barrier 2. Has no fitness excuses now third-up either. Mahuta still has to prove himself up to open WFA company though.

Tarzino ($15)
This star stayer has always given the impression that he’d furnish into a WFA horse. We get to see if that’s the case here. Mick Price is one of the most astute judges of his own horses chances and he expects him to charge home to finish just outside the placings. The Wolf tends to agree. Look for him launching late in his customary style.

Tavago ($26)
Announced himself in a big way in the Australian Derby, demolishing his rivals. He kicks off over 1400m here and despite some form over shorter trips back in NZ, The Wolf has him pegged as a genuine stayer. Doubt he’ll even get warm over 1400m here. Have the 26s on offer marked as unders.

Palentino ($6.50)
High-profile four-year-old who just did enough first-up to keep his reputation in tact. Tends to improve with racing and he’s much better suited out to 1400m. He’s probably his right price around the $6.50 mark. Will be very interesting to see what the market does with him this start. He was friendless first-up. Is he ready now or will he need one more to be a genuine winning hope? Suspect one more.

Tally ($34)
The Wolf’s really excited to see the return of this son of Street Cry as a four-year-old. He roared through the grades last campaign culminating in a boxing third behind Tavago in the Australian Derby. Was he suss at the 2400m or perhaps he’d had enough after a long prep. Took the scalp of Palentino the start prior to that so he looks inflated odds considering that. The barrier does him no favours but if he can slot in somewhere midfield he’s a knockout hope.

Rising Romance ($21)
Punters rejoice, the enigma that is Rising Romance is back for another campaign. She’ll poke around again and finish midfield. That’s just her. If there is an X-factor it’s that she will race in foal this spring. Sometimes that sparks marks up. Still happy to risk her.

Sofia Rosa ($18)
The Australian Oaks winner kicks off her spring. She has a very strong fresh record but she’ll likely find a couple of these too slick. Big ask for a four-year-old mare to make the transition to WFA racing too. You wouldn’t think the Ambience/Believe form would stack up here from her Oaks win.

 

The Wolf’s Top 5

1. Black Heart Bart
2. Mahuta
3. Tally
4. Tarzino
5. Charmed Harmony

Odds as of 1pm Thursday, August 25.

Bet on the latest Memsie Stakes market.

 

Discuss