The Wolf’s runner by runner guide to the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas run this Saturday at Caulfield.
The race is held over 1600mm and has been won by champions like Lonhro, Weekend Hussler, All Too Hard & most recently by Divine Prophet.
Here are The Wolf’s thoughts on the 2017 Caulfield Guineas.
Group 1 Champagne Stakes who has returned to racing this prep very poorly. He’s been beaten a combined 24 lengths in his three starts this prep and to suggest he’ll be winning here is a bit far-fetched.
Kiwi import who has drawn the car park in barrier 17 here. Suspect the barrier draw and likely speed battle expected up front are the reasons for his scratching.
Flashy grey trained by Tony McEvoy who last start settled last at Moonee Valley and only battled away fairly. That was his first start beyond 1200m and he clearly didn’t enjoy it, he’ll have needed to improved off that to be going close here.
Peter Morgan trained front runner who got away with murder two starts ago at Caulfield over 1400m. He’s a very one dimensional colt, take him to the lead where he is comfortable and let him do the work from there. He won’t be getting a picnic out front here with the likes of The Mission, Showtime, Perast and even Gold Standard all kicking up to contest for the early lead. The Wolf suspects that if he tries to lead and engage in a speed battle he’ll only harm his chances and even if he doesn’t he isn’t good enough to be winning here.
Hawkes trained front runner who lead from the get go last start to win at Moonee Valley. He’s another who will settle on speed and with the predicted speed battle up front could be forced to take a sit. He’s drawn barrier 1 which helps his cause so at worst he can settle behind the leaders on the fence doing very little work in the run. The Wolf likes this colt and he is expecting a very big run, with the way the race maps out he could be one to include in the exotics.
Race favourite who suffered his first defeat last start in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude. Prior to this he had won four on the trot and he has plenty of ability as he has shown us. Two starts ago at Flemington he won from a near impossible, trapped last on the fence where Dwayne Dunn was forced to ride for luck and pray for a gap to open up, which luckily for him it did. He was beaten last start, but The Wolf is prepared to forgive him off that as we’ve seen countless times before where horses lose their final lead up run into their grand final. He has ability and The Wolf is supremely confident that we will see the real Royal Symphony stand up here.
Group 2 Stan Fox winner who finished fourth in the Golden Rose last start. He sat midfield that day to to finish off fairly in the straight. Prior to that over 1500m he was dominant in the Stan Fox, winning by two lengths against a very solid field. The distance is no query but his performance in the Golden Rose didn’t inspire and The Wolf has a few ahead of him.
Likely leader who sat on the speed last start to score. Expect he’ll lead here however this could prove costly, as he’ll be engaging in a speed battle up front with The Mission, Showtime, Sircconi and Gold Standard. He has the all important Sydney form, but The Wolf doubts he’ll be winning here.
Stepped up in distance to 2000m last start in the Spring Champion only to battle home for fourth. The drop back to the mile should suit here but he doesn’t appear to have the turn of foot like a few others here. Happy to risk.
Unplaced this prep and The Wolf expects this will continue here.
Godolphin trained colt who placed third behind Perast last start. He’s on an upward spiral and should absolutely the step up to the mile here. He’s drawn well in barrier 10 so expect Damian Lane to settle him just behind the speed and let down nicely in the straight. His form behind Menari reads well for this, but against him if the fact he has only won once and it was against a relatively weak field of 2yo’s. He maps to get the gun run but The Wolf doesn’t believe he has the ability to win here.
South Australian galloper who almost pulled off the impossible two starts ago against Royal Symphony. He’s drawn wide in barrier 14 which is a concern and his run last start at Caulfield in the Guineas Prelude behind Perast was only plain. Happy to risk.
Busuttin/Young trained galloper who placed last time out at Moonee Valley behind Showtime when making ground from the rear of the field. Last start showed he is better ridden back in the field, where he can finish off with his powerful turn of foot. Expect he’ll do the same again here, but The Wolf highly doubts he is good enough to win.
Another who was well beaten last start in the Guineas Prelude by Perast. He won’t be turning that margin around here.
Made up a stack of ground last start behind Showtime at Moonee Valley to finish third. His Pakenham synthetic form prior to that race is weak and with barrier 15 he’s going to be doing a lot of work in the run. Not here.
Group 1 Blue Diamond winner who has elected to take on the boys here. Last start was her first start beyond 1200m where she found herself back in the field to finish third behind Booker. She gave every indication that the step up the mile wouldn’t be a problem here and The Wolf was very impressed with her closing finish last time out. She’s drawn barrier 3 which is tricky, Mark Zahra will have to elect to either go forward or drift back through the field so that she can finish off as she did last time out. She has plenty of ability and The Wolf expects she’ll go very close here.
First emergency who gets a run due to the scratching of Summer Passage. His form’s been mixed and The Wolf doesn’t expect that it is strong enough to be competitive here.
The Wolf’s Speed Map
Where he predicts the runners will settle after leaving the barriers.
The Wolf’s Top 5
This is as a very competitive Group 1 race with what appears to be a few winning chances. The Wolf is supremely confident in his selections.
1 – Royal Symphony
2 – Catchy
3 – Perast
4 – Gold Standard
5 – Showtime
Bet on the latest Caulfield Guineas market here.
More Racing and Sports Tips
Odds correct as of 3:00pm, Friday 13 October.