The People’s Champion had got to as short as $2.70 to win the Caulfield Cup before his Turnbull flop but punters have not abandoned him, backing him from $6.00 to $4.60 since Wednesday’s barrier draw.
We took one bet of $50,000 at $6.00 on Wednesday and there were a string of other big bets as the punters who have been rewarded by his winning streak, stayed strong.
The big question mark following his failure in Turnbull is whether he can run out the 2400m especially given he has to carry top weight of 57kgs.
After watching his run in the Turnbull, I seriously doubt he can run out 2400m in the Caulfield Cup which is one of the quickest mile and half races in the world, especially given he is drawn slightly awkwardly in barrier 11.
We have been laying him for six months to win this race, so we have no real choice now but to keep laying him.
In for a penny, in for a pound.
The other horse vying for favouritism is the Turnbull winner, Littorio, who is currently $6.00 at William Hill Australia.[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHl55xXZzAo]
His win in the Turnbull was outstanding but I am happy to take him on as well as he has a very poor strike rate and I am not certain Caulfield will suit him.
Last year’s winner Master O’Reilly has also been reasonably well backed at William Hill Australia and his second up run in the Turnbull showed he is primed to go back to back.
He is currently $6.50 and looks to be outstanding value as he loves Caulfield and this has been his primary target for the preparation.
Of the other runners, there has been solid money around for last year’s runner up Douro Valley, Maldivian, Boundless and import All the Good.
Douro Valley looks to be outstanding value to me given he ran second last year, loves Caulfield and is drawn ideally in barrier 3.
He is currently $16 at William Hill Australia and I think he will certainly look the winner in the straight and it will take a good performance to run him down.
I think it is well worth keeping an eye on Kiwi raiders this year as the form from New Zealand looks to be a lot better than in previous years.
Boundless, Red Ruler and Nom Du Jeu all come out of the Kelt Capital stakes where they finished close behind Princess Coup who is the Cox Plate favourite.
There is plenty of other good racing at Caulfield tomorrow away from the Cup and the best backed runner so far has been Makybe Diva’s three quarter brother, Musket, in the David Jones Cup. He’s currently showing $4.40 out of barrier one but I like Baughurst here. He was bred by my Aunty Catriona Green and she is still getting over selling him so hopefully she has a successful flutter on him tomorrow. He prefers Moonee Valley but he should run well in a strong field at Caulfield tomorrow.