Wolf’s Melbourne Cup Runner By Runner – Sandown Park 24/11/17

Melbourne Cup Runner By Runner

Aston Dee Bee ($2.50)
Trainer: Seona Thompson
Box: 1

Well done to those who took the $10 All-In on Aston Dee Bee as recommended by The Wolf in his Melbourne Cup Heats Guide last week, as he’s been gifted the dream draw for the final in Box 1 where he will start a red hot favourite. He posted the fastest time for a heat win last week running a speedy 29.12 and a repeat of that run here suggests he’ll be very hard to beat. He’s drawn box 1 where he should be able to position himself on the rails and with a clean run throughout the race prove very tough to run down.

Kouta Mayhem ($8)
Trainer: Jason Sharp
Box: 2

Son of Fabregas who posted a 29.57 time for his heat win. This is quick but he has speed drawn on either side of him and if he isn’t first out with clear running he’ll struggle here. His best time over this course and distance is 29.53 which is the slowest of any runner in the field. Handy dog but he’s only making up numbers here.

Chasin’ Crackers ($17)
Trainer: Glenn Rounds
Box: 3

Heat winner who scored in a time of 29.40 ahead of Shadale. He’s Group 1 placed before in the Vic Peters Classic and whilst this reads well for a race like this, it was run in a slow time of 30.38 and if he wants to be competitive in this he’ll have needed to have improved sharply. There’s pace on either side of him and The Wolf expects he’ll get swamped early and slip back through the field heading into the first turn. Not here.

Raw Ability ($6.50)
Trainer: Anthony Azzopardi
Box: 4

Raw Ability has plenty of ability and he flew in his heat, posting the second fastest time running a speedy 29.20. His first sectional time of 4.95 was the fastest and if he repeats that here he is the likely leader alongside Up Hill Jill. He’s drawn in the middle which is a concern, but he’ll be able to beat those inside of him out and enjoy a clean run into the first turn. Aston Dee Bee is the clear Greyhound to beat but if Raw Ability can lead them up he’ll give Aston Dee Bee something to chase.

Up Hill Jill ($8)
Trainer: David Geall
Box: 5

Group 1 Topgun winner who scorched the track early last start in her heat posting a slick 4.99 first sectional time. She’ll fly out again here and if she can get clear running into the first turn she’ll most likely be in the front pair alongside Raw Ability. The Wolf expects they’ll go toe to toe up front and prove very tough to run down. One for the exotics.

Bewildering ($4)
Trainer: Seona Thompson
Box: 6

Talented son of Black Magic Opal who posted a speedy 29.35 time when winning his heat last week. Against him however his he’ll need a lot of luck, due to his unreliability out of the boxes. If he’s slow out and finds himself well back in the field he’ll need to be very good to win from there and The Wolf is prepared to risk him due to his racing pattern.

Aston Miley ($19)
Trainer: Eddie Lieshout
Box: 7

Slowest heat winner of the field who ran a 29.60 last week. Whilst this is a quick time, it’s not fast enough to be winning against a field of this calibre.

Striker Light ($12)
Trainer: Brett Bravo
Box: 8

Group 1 Golden Easter Egg winner who has been gifted the horror draw out wide. She’ll need to fly out of the boxes to be a chance here and if she can get herself on the speed heading into the first turn she is a chance. Slow out from the draw and it’s all over and The Wolf is prepared to bank on her being beaten out early and finding trouble on the first turn. Had she drawn an inside box she’d be a leading chance in this, but the wide draw will be difficult to overcome.

Not Available ($12) (1E)
Trainer: Robert Britton
Box: 9

Lightly raced son of Barcia Bale who struggled to reel in Aston Dee Bee last week. He needs a scratching here which is unlikely, his best time over this course and distance is 29.40 which is competitive but his box speed isn’t the best and a few others have his measure.

Ando’s Mac ($13) (2E)
Trainer: Anthony Azzopardi
Box: 10

Last year’s Melbourne Cup winner who will need two scratchings to make the field which is very unlikely. His best form is good enough to win here so if he is to make the field he’ll go close but a start is very unlikely.

The Wolf’s Top 5

Suggested Bet: If you took the $10 All-In about Aston Dee Bee you’re in a very good place heading into the final and The Wolf suspects he will be far too good for them here.

1. Aston Dee Bee
2. Raw Ability
3. Up Hill Jill
4. Bewildering
5. Striker Light

Circuit Bets

Jackson Benz (Sandown Park Race 4, No. 3)

Dominant 29.41 winner who is well boxed here to score back to back wins.

He boasts an impressive record of seven wins from 13 starts, and if he is able to post a another 5.11 first sectional time he take running down.

Group 1 winner Crash Bandicoot is the main danger in Box 2, but The Wolf is confident that Jackson Benz will find the early lead and go on with things from there.

Recommended Bet: Jackson Benz to WIN at $4.60.

Confidence Level: 

Black Mumbo (Sandown Park Race 7, No. 3)

Group 1 Harrison-Dawson winner who looks very well placed to score a well deserved win from Box 3.

He struggled last start from the wide draw but having drawn the white here he should be able to ping the lids and find the early lead.

The Wolf is confident that with a rails run throughout he’ll prove very tough to beat.

Recommended Bet: Black Mumbo to WIN at $3.60.

Confidence Level: 

Prices correct as of 3:00pm AEDT Thursday November 23, 2017.

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