Wells Fargo Championship: Preview and Tips

Golf Betting

Wells Fargo Championship, Quail Hollow Golf Course, Charlotte, North Carolina

Course

The PGA Tour returns to its traditional format of play as they travel to Charlotte, North Carolina. The host for this year’s Wells Fargo Championship is the Quail Hollow Golf Course. The tournament is almost always played at Quail Hollow but was played at Eagle Point last year because Quail Hollow hosted the PGA Championship instead.

The course is a demanding test for golfers and is consistently rated as one of the hardest Par-72’s on Tour. The Course was designed by George Cobb in 1961 and since been modified by Arnold Palmer and Tom Fazio in 1997 and 2003 respectively.

The 16th, 17th, and 18th hole is known as the Green Mile and is one of the most difficult stretches of holes on Tour. It makes for an interesting finish as things can change very quickly.  The weather for this weekend is expected to start out sunny and clear but get progressively worse as the weekend rolls in.

There is a very real possibility of rain on Sunday and tee times could be a very important factor in determining the final outcome.

Tournament Overview

The Wells Fargo Championship is a tournament that is usually won by players that are experienced and have a lot of course knowledge to back it up. Previous winners include Brian Harman (2017), James Hahn (2016), Rory McIlroy (2015, 2010), and J.B. Holmes (2014).

Doing well at this tournament means hitting some of the most difficult fairways with regularity off the tee and then ensuring the approach shots to the greens are perfect. The green complexes are small in size and have undulations on them. Getting on the greens in regulation is very important but not enough if the putter is not working as well.

Length off the tee is helpful but it is not just that the bombers are going to win this tournament. Being relatively long and accurate is much more important than getting the most distance off the tee.

Stats That Matter

The Stats that the Wolf is going to be looking at that for this weekend include:

  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • Bogey Avoidance

The record for the lowest winning score at this course is held by Rory McIlroy who shot a 267 here in 2015.  The winning score tends to vary between -8 and -15 in most years and with the weather not likely to be favourable this year, we think that the winning score will be somewhere around the lower margin of that range.

Taking advantage of scoring on the Par 5’s and scrambling to make Par are going to be very important for players to succeed.

Predictions

The Wolf’s favorite this week has to be Justin Thomas at $10.00. Justin Thomas is the second-ranked golfer in the world but is considered by many experts as the current best player on tour. He has every shot in the game and gets some good distance off the tee as well. Difficult courses like these always suit the quality players and this is where someone like Justin Thomas can distinguish himself from the field.

Thomas finished T17 at the Masters, was T4 at the Dell Match Play event, and T2 at the WGC Mexico Championship not too long ago. Thomas also finished 7th when he played the tournament here in 2007.

Justin Thomas is 4th for Par 5 Scoring, 7th for Bogey Avoidance, and 37th for Strokes Gained: Putting.

The value pick this week is Jason Day at $21.00. Just when it seemed that Jason Day had turned a corner and was back at his best on the golf course his form deserted him. His last four starts have seen him placed outside the top-20 but that is why he is available at an excellent price for this tournament.

Day has the game to tame this course and the Wolf thinks his form could be rebounding anytime soon now. Day is currently 1st in Strokes Gained: Putting, 50th in Par 5 Scoring, and 46th in Bogey Avoidance.

Jason Day should be able to good distance off the tee but his iron game needs to be well and truly outlines to make an impact.

For the long shot, the Wolf likes Webb Simpson at $34.00. Simpson is an excellent player with all the attributes needed to secure a strong finish at Quail Hollow. Webb Simpson has been playing some excellent golf in the past few weeks and the Wolf believes this could be his week to shine.

3 top-5 finishes in his last six matches are no mean feat and he also ha plenty of experience playing on this course. Simpson has two top-5 finishes in at Quail Hollow in the past and his best finish is 2nd in 2015.

The stats are also screaming out Webb Simpson’s name for this tournament. Webb Simpson is 9th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 3rd in Par 5 Scoring, and 6th in Bogey Avoidance.

Simpson could very well be the one to surprise plenty of people this week and play for the tile on Sunday.

Recommended Bets

Tournament Winner

Best: Justin Thomas ($10.00)

Value: Jason Day ($21.00)

Roughie: Webb Simpson ($34.00)

Tournament By Country

Top Aussie: Jason Day ($ 1.75)

Top USA: Justin Thomas ($5.00)

Top European: Alex Noren ($9.00)

Top Rest of World: Byeong-Hun An ($8.00)

72 Hole Match Bets

Big 6 v Field: The Field ($1.70)

McIlroy vs Thomas: Justin Thomas ($2.00)

Fowler vs Day: Jason Day ($2.20)

Reed vs Matsuyama: Patrick Reed ($1.85)

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