Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Preview and Tips

Pebble Beach betting odds PGA Tour

Pebble Beach Pro-Am, California

Course

It’s back to sunny California once again as the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is about to get underway. The tournament will be played on three different courses: Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill Golf Club, and the Monterey Peninsula Country Club. The first and the final round will be played at Pebble Beach, which is also the most well known among all these courses.

All the three courses are very similar in length with Pebble Beach being the shortest course on the PGA Tour. Small poa annua greens and some generous fairways will be the test that golfers will face up to. Wind can often be a major factor here and being lucky enough to play Spyglass, which is lined by trees, can be a major advantage.

Tournament Overview

This is another 54 hole cut event and features some of the top players in the world. Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Jon Rahm, and Rory McIlroy will be among the biggest draws this weekend. Jordan Spieth missed the cut last weekend and has been having some trouble with his putter but playing as the defending champion could rev him up once again.

Being a short course, the players that get the most distance with their drivers do not have a huge advantage here. In fact, the Wolf thinks that players who are accurate with the irons and good with the putters with the ability to scramble from difficult positions that will do the best on this course.

Stats that Matter

The stats that the Wolf will be looking for in this tournament are:

  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Greens in Regulation
  • Par 4 Scoring

Jordan Spieth won here last year with a score of -19, Vaughan Taylor won in 2016 with -17, and Brandt Snedeker won in 2015 with a score of -22.

With no rain expected this weekend and the wind expected to be mild for the majority of the weekend, players should be able to score aggressively this year as well. The Wolf thinks a winning score of around -20 is a good bet.

Jordan Spieth was T26 in Driving Distance, T3 in Greens in Regulation, and T4 in Strokes Gained: Putting when he won last year.

Predictions

Jason Day has rediscovered some sterling form and there are signs that 2018 is going to be much better than 2017 was for him. At $11.00, Day is one of the favorites for the tournament but he is still worth a punt. Day won the Farmer’s Insurance Open and is absolutely bossing the greens at the moment. Day is 2nd in Par 4 scoring but only 135th in Greens in Regulation and 139th in Bogey Avoidance.

For the value pick, the Wolf likes Matt Kuchar at $34.00. A strong showing last week at the Waste Management Open was highlighted by his ability to make clutch putts. Kuchar is not the longest off the tee but has been scoring very well at the Par 5’s of late and that is something very positive for his game. This tournament with its short courses and the need for accuracy sets up very well for Matt Kuchar.

He is 9th when it comes to Greens in Regulation, 19th in Bogey Avoidance, and 22nd in Par 4 Scoring. Kuchar has good course knowledge as well and has a best finish of T6 in 2007 at Pebble Beach.

For the long shot, the Wolf likes Rafael Cabrera Bello at $67.00. The market actually seems to have underpriced Rafael and that is what makes a punt on him even more attractive. Rafa has finished 4 top-5 finishes in his last 7 starts and so form is not a problem for him.

Even the stats seem to suggest that Rafa will be a contender in this tournament. He is 2nd in Greens in Regulation, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, and 25th in Bogey Avoidance. The only thing that really goes against him is his inability to adjust to the wind as well as some of his competitors. The Wolf still highly recommends a bet on him, though.

Recommended Bets

Tournament Winner

Best: Jason Day ($11.00)

Value: Matt Kuchar ($34.00)

Roughie: Rafa Cabrera Bello ($67.00)

Tournament By Country

Top Aussie: Jason Day ($1.65)

Top Continental European: Rafa Cabrero Bello ($4.50)

Top Rest of World: Branden Grace ($7.00)

72 Hole Match Bets

Big 6 v Field: The Field ($1.95)

Johnson vs Rahm: Dustin Johnson ($1.75)

Day vs McIlroy: Jason Day ($1.90)

Spieth vs Woodland: Gary Woodland ($2.30)