John Deere Classic: Preview and Tips

Golf Betting

John Deere Classic, TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois

Course

The PGA Tour will now head to Silvis, Illinois, for the John Deere Classic to be played at the TPC Deere Run. The course, a 7200+ yard Par 71, has been hosting this tournament since 2000 and was first designed by D.A Weibring. Built along the Rock River and framed by Oak Trees, the course is considered to be one of the easy ones that players encounter on Tour.

The fairways are wide and easy to hit and distance is not going to be much of a concern. Players will be hitting wedges on to green complexes that are fairly generous but do have some undulations that can make putts a little tricky.

The trees provide a natural barrier to wind and allow the players to really go for the pins. All in all, this course will see a lot of birdies made and players cannot afford to be safe by making par here. The weather conditions are expected to get a little rough with some rain predicted for the weekend.

Tournament Overview

Bryson DeChambeau won the tournament in 2017, Ryan Moore won it in 2016, Jordan Spieth won in 2015, Brian Harman in 2014, and Jordan Spieth in 2013 again. The field for this tournament is relatively weak with most of the top-ranked players in the world skipping the tournament.

That, coupled with the fact that the course favors first-time winners, means that a relative outsider could end up winning the tournament.

To win this tournament distance may not be the biggest factor but the approach to the green has to be perfect. This tournament is all about the second shot and the putting.  Players will also need to make sure that are not making too many mistakes since that will put them at a big disadvantage on a course where birdies are always on the cards.

Stats that Matter

The Wolf is looking at the following stats for this week:

  • Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
  • Par 4 Scoring
  • Bogey Avoidance

There have been some incredibly low scores recorded at this course. The record is a total of 258 (-26) shot by Steve Stricker in 2010 in the middle of an incredible three year winning run at the John Deere Classic.

The winning total appears to be in the range of -18 to -22 in most years and the Wolf expected the same to be the case this year as well.

DeChambeau was 21st for Driving Distance, 32nd for Driving Accuracy, 11th for Greens in Regulation, and 2nd for Strokes Gained: Putting when he won last year.

Predictions

The Wolf’s top pick for this week is Zach Johnson at $11. Johnson has been in pretty good touch lately recording a T19 at the Travelers and T12 at the U.S. Open. His record, though, at the John Deere Classic over the years has been fantastic. He has five straight top-5 finishes between 2011 and 2015, finished 5th here last year, and has a total of seven top-5 finishes here in the past.

The stats are also in his favor. Johnson is 27th for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 18th for Par 4 Scoring, and 19th for Bogey Avoidance. The Wolf certainly thinks that a player of this calibre with a stellar course history in a weak field has every chance of adding to his wins at this tournament.

For the value pick, the Wolf likes Kyle Stanley at $19. Stanley is another player that can go on some incredible scoring sprees, almost a pre-requisite for this tournament. He finished T2 at the Memorial a couple of weeks back and had a couple of middling weeks after that.

Kyle Stanley finished 2nd here in 2011 but has since struggled in his following attempts. Stanley’s wedge game has improved significantly over the last couple of years and the Wolf thinks his putting is in a good place as well. A punt on him at $19 is certainly worth it.

For the long shot, the Wolf likes Chris Kirk at $34. Kirk is carrying some good form into the tournament having finished T6 at the FedEx Classic and T11 at the Fort Worth Invitational. His record at the John Deere is not too good, though. He finished 60th here last year and has a best place finish of 22nd on two separate occasions.

The stats back up Chris Kirk as well. He is 11th for Bogey Avoidance, 18th for Par 4 Scoring, and 35th for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.

Recommended Bets

Tournament Winner

Best: Zach Johnson ($11)

Value: Kyle Stanley ($19)

Roughie: Chris Kirk ($34)

Tournament By Country

Top Aussie: Aaron Baddeley ($4.20)

Top USA: Zach Johnson ($6)

Top European: Francesco Molinari ($1.70)

72 Hole Match Bets

Molinari vs DeChambeau: Francesco Molinari ($1.77)

Johnson vs Moore: Zach Johnson ($1.77)

Niemann vs Stricker: Joaquin Niemann ($1.87)

Discuss