Genesis Open: Preview and Tips

Golf Betting

Genesis Open, Pacific Palisades, California

Course

The PGA Tour moves to Pacific Palisades, California for the Genesis Open. The tournament is going to be played at the Riviera Country Club where the course was designed by George C Thomas Jr in 1926.

The course is a par 71, just over 7300 yards in length and is one of the more traditional golf courses. There have been three major championships hosted at the Riviera in the past but over the last few years the rough has been trimmed down and that has changed the nature of the course according to the Wolf. The fairways are narrow but missing them does not cost the golfers too much and this makes the relatively long course tilt towards the bombers. The weather is expected to be pleasant throughout the weekend and should not be a concern to the golfers.

Tournament Overview

Dustin Johnson is the defending champion this week, Bubba Watson won it in 2016, James Hahn in 2015, and Bubba Watson once again in 2014. The real excitement, though, this week is going to be all about Tiger Woods. He is feeling his way back onto the tour and people want to see if he is still half as good as he was at his peak.

Playing well at this course require golfers to have a strong iron game. Players that get distance off the tea, get their irons dialed-in and hit the small greens are the ones that are going to be in contention on Sunday.

The greens are poa annua, which some golfers have trouble with and so a solid short game is essential to closing out the week.

Stats That Matter

The Wolf is looking at the following stats for this week:

  • Par 4 Scoring
  • Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
  • Bogey Avoidance

Dustin Johnson won with a score of -17 last year equalling the course record,  Bubba Watson with -15 in 2016 and 2014, while James Hahn won with -6 in 2015.

The Wolf is expecting the scoring to be high this year as well and a winning score around -15 can be expected. Dustin Johnson won by leading in Driving Distance and Green In Regulation last year. He was only T45 in Driving Accuracy, though.

Predictions

The Wolf is sticking with the defending champion, Dustin Johnson, as the favorite for this tournament at $6.00. Johnson is absolutely built for this course thanks to the distance he gets off the tee. He has gained more strokes off the tee on this course than any other player that is competing. Dustin Johnson is also in unbelievable form at the moment. He finished T2 last week at Pebble Beach to give him four top-2 finishes in his last five tournaments.

He is also 4th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, and 9th in Bogey Avoidance.

For the value pick, the Wolf likes Paul Casey at $26.00. Casey is in excellent form and finished T8 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM last week. He can crush the ball off the tee and likes playing at the Riviera. His best finish was a T2 in 2015 and the Wolf would not put it past him to go one better.

Casey is 1st in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 52nd in Par 4 Scoring, and 31st in Bogey Avoidance.

For the long shot, the Wolf likes Chez Reavie $34.00. He is someone who is really at the top of his game right now and is running super hot. Reavie finished 2nd in the last two competitions and is going to be a solid contender this week.

The stats really back up Reavie’s claim as he is 5th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, and 6th in Bogey Avoidance. If Reavie can get off to a good start in this tournament then he could go all the way. The fact that he has good course history with a best finish of T7 in 2016 also helps.

Recommended Bets

Tournament Winner

Best: Dustin Johnson ($6.00)
Value: Paul Casey ($26.00)
Roughie: Chez Reavie ($34.00)

Tournament By Country

Top Aussie: Cameron Smith ($3.75)

72 Hole Match Bets

Big 6 v Field: Big 6 (D.Johnson, R.McIlroy, J.Spieth, J.Thomas, P.Mickelson & P.Casey) ($2.15)
D.Johnson vs Spieth: Dustin Johnson ($1.65)
McIlroy vs Thomas: Justin Thomas ($2.05)