Farmers Insurance Open: Preview and Tips

Golf Betting

Farmers Insurance Open, Torrey Pines Course, California

Course

The PGA Tour is moving to La Holla, California for the Farmers Insurance Open to be played at the Torrey Pines courses. This tournament is going to be played on two courses, moving down from the three the last one was played on, the Torrey Pines North and South Courses.

Both the courses were designed by Billy Bell Jr. and are considered to be relatively difficult in terms of what they ask of the golfers. The North course plays a little shorter (about 450 yards) than the South course which is the easier of the two. Only one round, either the first or second, will be played on this course.

The South course, which plays about 7700 yards in length was revamped extensively in 2001 and has since become more difficult. The fairways are narrow, rough thick, and the greens are not the easiest to hit from poor positions. The South course hosted the US Open in 2008 and is slated to do the same in 2021 as well.

Tournament Overview

This tournament has been won by some of the best players on tour in most years and it has been noted that it is difficult for rank outsiders to pull off surprises at this course. Tiger Woods, who is playing this tournament, won it straight from 2005-2008 and in 2013 as well.

Scott Stalling won it in 2014, Jason Day in 2015, Brandt Snedeker in 2016, and Jon Rahm in 2017.

Players that can hit a long ball off the tee have a big advantage on this long course but that is not the only skill required. Staying out of trouble is also going to play a big role in deciding the eventual winner. The Wolf thinks that those players that can get scramble well are ones to be looked at as well as those that have their iron game on point.

Jon Rahm just won the last tournament and is in excellent form. He is one player that the entire field will be looking out for as he tries to defend his title.

Stats that Matter

The Wolf is not going to be looking at the putting stats for this tournament because the tough greens equalise the field somewhat. These are the stats that should help identify some contenders this week:

  • Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Par 4 Scoring

As mentioned earlier, Torrey Pines is not a course where you are going to see a score of 20 under Par as the winning total. Jon Rahm won this tournament with a 275 last year, Brandt Snedeker with 282 in 2016, Jason Day and Scott Stallings with 279 each in the years before that.

The weather conditions play an important role and tee times can be a very big factor in those cases. This weekend though is expected to be sunny, clear, and perfect for playing golf.

Predictions

The Wolf is going to stick with the class players in this field for the most part of it because they are the ones that tend to win at the Farmers Insurance Open year after year. For the favorite, Jon Rahm at $7.50 looks very interesting. Rahm just blitzed the field at the CareerBuilder Open and looks set to have a monster year on Tour.

The Wolf recommends sticking with Jon Rahm until his form starts to fade a little. Past experience at Torrey Pines is a big factor and Rahm is the defending champion here. He is 6th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 64th in Bogey Avoidance, and 16th in Par 4 scoring.

For the value pick, the Wolf likes Hideki Matsuyama at $15.00. Matsuyama has the ideal kind of game suited for this course and always seems to perform better than the field in tough conditions. Hideki’s tendency to fall back on the greens is not going to show up on this course but his ability to avoid getting in trouble will stand him in good stead.

He is currently 30th in Bogey Avoidance, 43rd in Par 4 Scoring, and 7th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.

For the outside bet, the Wolf likes Cameron Smith at $51.00. There is a reason why Smith is being offered at the price and that his inconsistency. He frequently veers from the brilliant to making daft mistakes, although the Wolf believes he has turned a corner somewhat. Cameron Smith has a victory, two top-5 finishes, and 3 top-20 finishes in his last 6 starts.

He also has some very decent stats coming into this tournament. He is 63rd in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, and 30th in Bogey Avoidance. Well worth a punt.

Recommended Bets

Tournament Winner

Best: Jon Rahm ($7.50)

Value: Hideki Matsuyama ($15.00)

Roughie: Cameron Smith ($51.00)

Tournament By Country

Top Aussie: Cameron Smith ($4.50)

Top USA: Brandt Snedeker ($21.00)

Top European: Jon Rahm ($2.20)

72 Hole Match Bets

Big 6 v Field: The Field ($1.57)

Rahm vs Fowler: Jon Rahm ($1.75)

Matsuyama vs Rose: Hideki Matsuyama ($1.90)

Woods vs Harman: Brian Harman ($2.05)

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