NBL Preview: Round 1
The NBL season tips off this week and basketball fans could not be more excited about the return of one of Australia’s most beloved sporting leagues.
2015/16 Regular Season ATS and Over-Under Records
Adelaide: 12-16 ATS, 18-10 O/U
Cairns: 11-17 ATS, 10-18 O/U
Illawarra: 18-10 ATS, 21-7 O/U
Melbourne: 13-15 ATS, 15-13 O/U
New Zealand: 14-14 ATS, 13-15 O/U
Perth: 15-13 ATS, 16-12 O/U
Sydney: 11-17 ATS, 20-8 O/U
Brisbane v Perth: Brisbane +2.5 ($1.90)
The Bullets return to the NBL after an absence of nearly a decade and can open with a win against defending champions Perth. Small home underdogs (2.5 or less) were an impressive 8-3 ATS last season. Perth were just 4-3 ATS last season when favoured on the road and enter this year with a fairly thin roster following losses of key bigs Matt Knight (injury), Nate Jawai and Tom Jervis (new clubs).
New Zealand v Melbourne: New Zealand +3.5 ($1.90)
Home underdogs were 16-11 ATS and with the Breakers hoodoo over United they are a confident play in Week 1. New Zealand had home wins of 37,13 and 11 against Melbourne last year along with a win and two close losses in Melbourne. After going 5-1 ATS v Melbourne last year and Melbourne likely to take a little while to click, the Breakers are an excellent bet in their home opener.
Illawarra v Adelaide: Over 181.5 ($1.90)
The Hawks were an incredible 20-8 over in the regular season while they were 13-2 over on home court across the home and away and playoff seasons. Adelaide were 10-4 over on the road last year. The two Hawks-Sixers games in Wollongong tallied 201 points. With some quality shooting on both teams and both teams preferring to play up-tempo, this should be a points-fest.
Sydney v Brisbane: Brisbane +5.5 ($1.90)
The Kings are the hype team of the pre-season but with a roster that still has three slots open, a lack of a genuine point and a real size issue. The lack of coaching experience from Andrew Gaze does little to boost confidence. The Bullets have arguably the best coach in the NBL and a well-balanced roster. The Kings covered just 1 of 3 last season when favoured at home by 4 or more.
Perth v Cairns: Cairns +10.5 ($1.90)
Double figure home favourites were a poor 3-8 ATS last season, making Perth a lay in this one. Weeks 1-4 those home favourites were 2-4 ATS. The Wildcats were 1-3 ATS as a double figure home favourite. The concern is Cairns were a poor 2-5 ATS last year getting 6.5 or more on the road. They have the clear worst roster in the NBL to boot.
Melbourne v Adelaide: Melbourne -8.5 ($1.90)
Melbourne are the least confident bet of Week 1 giving 8.5 points to Adelaide. The number is big with home favourites of 8.5 or more just 10-15 ATS but Adelaide lost three of their first four road games last year by 9 or more. Their poor defence should open up plenty of opportunities for the superior perimeter shooting.