NBA Tips: Rockets @ Warriors (Game 6)

The Rockets made home court count but with Chris Paul ruled out for Game 6 the Warriors look primed to force a series decider!

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NBA: Rockets @ Warriors – Game 6 (Sun 11:05am)

A tremendous defensive effort from the Rockets in Game 5 and a dramatic win were overshadowed by a hamstring injury to Chris Paul. He has been ruled out for Game 6 and is unlikely to take the court in a potential series decider. He was the Rockets best in yet another game where James Harden struggled. The Beard managed only 19 points and went 0 for 11 from deep. Across the last 4 games of the series Harden is 8 of 44 (18%) from beyond the arc and that will have to improve of the Rockets are to win this series.

Can they close out in Game 6…

NO WAY, says The Wolf! It took 17 playoff matches for the Warriors to lose at home and they aren’t about to lose consecutive postseason games at Oracle Arena. The absence of CP3 is good news for them in more ways than one. The Rockets lose a floor general and a man that can score in isolation when Harden is struggling. Moreover, the lose Curry’s primary defender. It also means more Rockets turnovers. Paul has zero turnovers in Game 5 and has been limited to less than 2 turnovers per game in the series compared to 4 from Harden.

Why are turnovers so important…

It’s simple – the stats don’t lie. In the Warriors three losses in this series they have had at least 15 turnovers. In the two wins – just 8 and 9 respectively. The Wolf is expecting them to really tidy things up in Game 6 and with Paul out the number should drop as the perennial All-Star is averaging 2 steals per game in the series. Due to his absence The Wolf is expecting:

Curry to explode!

With CP3 watching from the bench, Curry is set to go off! The two-time MVP has averaged 7 attempts from beyond the arc in road games this series compared to 12.5 at Oracle Arena. With no CP3 up in his face we will see more of Harden on him and that is great news for Golden State. He torched him in the 3rd quarter of Game 4 and will be repeating that effort here – especially with Harden shouldering additional responsibilities on the offensive end.

We have seen the Unders salute in 4 of the 5 games this series and The Wolf expects that trend to continue – especially if the Rockets are down double digits heading into the final quarter. Under is 5-0-1 in the Warriors last 6 following a loss and 21-10 in the Rockets last 31 following a ATS win. Houston will not be contributing to this total and this one will be over by the 3rd quarter. We’re heading back to Houston for Game 7!

Wolf’s NBA Playoffs Best Bet Record: 34-30