NBA Tips – 30th November

We have a stack of teams on the second of a back to back including the Timberwolves, Heat and Wizards. With all of them on the road The Wolf is predicting a difficult day at the office.

1. Oklahoma City @ Orlando (11:05am)

The Thunders win over the Warriors seems a long time ago. They have since lost back to back matches to Detroit and Dallas which has seen them slip to a 8-11 record. What will concern Billy Donovan the most is the fact that his side is just 2-8 on the road this season. It is a terrible record and The Wolf is shocked to see them installed as 6 point favs. They are 2-8 ATS on the road for the season including 0-6 ATS in their last 6 travels. We will continue to back the Under in their matches as all the trends stack up. The Under is 10-1 in the Thunders last 11 against East teams and 7-1 in their last 8 when on 3 or more days rest. Orlando will also play their part. The Under is 5-1 in their last 6 at home and 8-2 in their last 10 when facing teams with a losing record. The Thunder are defending brilliantly and attacking poorly (22nd in offensive efficiency and 27th in team shooting %) – a recipe for struggles on the road. Orlando with the start and the Unders.

Tip: Orlando +6 ($1.92)

2. Charlotte @ Toronto (11:35am)

This is a classic battle between a side that rarely loses at home hosting an opponent that does not know how to win on the road. The Hornets are 1-8 on the road this season and The Wolf says backing them on the road will be a rarity. They are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 road games, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 following a loss and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 when coming off a extended break. On the flip-side this is the first of three straight at home for the Raptors who have won their last 4 at Air Canada Centre. They average 112.7ppg at home (5th) with a averaging home scoring margin of +11.9, second only to the Warriors. Toronto are money at home and once they get ahead there will be no coming back for the visitors. Charlotte rank last in the NBA in 4th quarter scoring on the road with just 20.9 points. It’s great news for the Toronto cover.

Tip: Toronto -8 ($1.92)

3. Minnesota @ New Orleans (12:05pm)

Two franchises with big ambitions this seasons and they find themselves in very similar scenarios. They are hovering just above .500 and are still trying to discover their respective identities. The Pelicans are finally starting to play some defence. In a 3 game win streak over the Thunder, Spurs and Suns they held their opponents to just 96ppg. With Cousins and Davis it only makes sense that they defend the paint and make sides hurt them from beyond the arc. There is no reason for Pelicans opponents to be shooting in excess of 20 free throws per game. That number will come down as the season goes on. They will also be helped by the fact that the Timberwolves are on the second of a back to back. It means limited scoring for Minnesota with the Under 11-3 in their last 14 and 5-1 in their last 6 on the road. Minnesota do turn the ball over but Minnesota are 23th in fastbreak points per game and rarely run the floor on the break. Another factor that should help the total stay well below 220.

Tip: Under 216 points ($1.91)

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