NFL Preview: Week 6
The Wolf runs his eye over Week 6 NFL action and gives his recommended bet for each game.
Denver @ San Diego: Denver -3 ($1.80)
Denver are an outstanding 16-8 ATS since 2011 as a road favourite of 3 or more, making them a bet in this one. San Diego are 2-6 ATS over the same time getting 3 or more at home including four straight losses by 9 or more. Denver have won five straight v San Diego and have covered five straight in San Diego.
Baltimore @ NY Giants: Baltimore +3 ($1.90)
Road underdogs of exactly 3 are an excellent 26-14-6 ATS since 2006 Weeks 5-8 while in Week 6 they are 6-2 ATS. The Giants have covered just 2 of their last 8 as a home favourite while they have covered just 5 of their last 15 v the AFC. The Ravens have covered 5 of their last 6 road games, winning three outright.
Carolina @ New Orleans: Over 53 ($1.90)
The over has hit in eight straight New Orleans home games with totals with seven straight topping 62 points. The over is also a perfect 8-0 since 2011 when the Panthers have been away after being held to 14 points or fewer. The over has hit in 6 of the last 7 Carolina games on turf. High confidence here.
Cincinnati @ New England: Over 47 ($1.90)
The over has hit in 18 of 27 games since 2011 where the Patriots have been favoured by 7.5 or more at home. The Bengals also bounce back well off a poor offensive showing with the total going over in 23 of 33 Bengals games after being held to 15 or less. The over is 40-19 off a Pats cover and 18-6 when the Pats are at home against a team with a losing record.
Cleveland @ Tennessee: Cleveland +7.5 ($1.90)
The Browns and Titans have met in each of the last two seasons and Cleveland have been successful on both occasions. The Titans are a putrid 6-19-1 ATS at home since 2013, failing to cover their last three. This is the first time they have spotted 7 or more points on home turf since last 2013, a home loss to the Jags. The Browns have enough ability to play this close.
Jacksonville @ Chicago: Chicago -2.5 ($1.90)
There is a strong angle here with home favourites of less than a field goal 31-22 ATS Weeks 5-8 since 2006 including a 10-5 ATS record in Week 4. The Bears have covered just 5 their last 26 at home though and 3-11-2 ATS at home after scoring 21 or more the week prior so treat with caution.
LA Rams @ Detroit: Los Angeles +3 ($1.90)
Road underdogs of exactly 3 are an excellent 26-14-6 ATS since 2006 Weeks 5-8 while in Week 6 they are 6-2 ATS. The Rams have covered 9 of their last 13 on the road after scoring 21 or fewer points. The Lions have covered just 4 of their last 11 home games.
Philadelphia @ Washington: Washington +2.5 ($1.90)
The Skins have owned the Eagles over the last two seasons with three straight wins and four consecutive covers. Philly are a poor 5-11 ATS since 2011 on the road as a favourite while the Redskins have covered 5 of their last 6 as a road underdog. Washington have covered 7 of their last 10.
Pittsburgh @ Miami: Over 47 ($1.90)
The over is 60-44-1 since 2006 with a home underdog over a field goal, making the over in this one a top play. These two have met three times since 2010 with the over saluting in each. The over has hit in 7 of the last 11 Miami home games.
San Francisco @ Buffalo: Buffalo -8 ($1.90)
Buffalo have not started this short at home since 2010 but are still worth betting hard against a hapless 49ers team. The Bills have covered 5 of their last 6 as a home favourite while the Niners have been abhorrent on the road, covering just 2 of their last 12. This season they have lost both games by 19.
Kansas City @ Oakland: Over 47 ($1.90)
Very keen to bet the over in this one. There is a strong angle here with home favourites of less than a field goal 31-22 ATS Weeks 5-8 since 2006 including a 10-5 ATS record in Week 4. The over is 12-4-1 in the last 17 Raiders home games while 4 of the last 5 Raiders-Chiefs games have gone over. The over is 7-4-1 in the last 12 Chiefs road games.
Atlanta @ Seattle: Seattle -6.5 ($1.90)
Seattle have one of the best home-field cover records going 30-16-1 ATS since4 2011. When favoured by more than a field goal they are 20-13 ATS. After passing for more than 250 yards the game prior, the Seahawks are 19-5-2 ATS. Atlanta have the hot hand now and look to be a very good team but they face a very difficult task after playing Denver last week.
Dallas @ Green Bay: Dallas +4 ($1.90)
The Packers don’t look to be going as well as they are being credited for. Dallas have been unstoppable and continue to roll. The Packers have covered just 2 of their last 7 at Lambeau while the Cowboys have covered 5 of their last 6 road games when the total has been 47.5 or bigger. Dallas have covered 11 of their last 13 on grass.
Indianapolis @ Houston: Houston -3 ($1.90)
The Texans have covered five straight at home and 9 of their last 11. The Colts have covered just 4 of their last 11 on the road. Houston have also covered four straight against teams with a losing record and six straight against the AFC South.
NY Jets @ Arizona: New York Jets +7.5 ($1.90)
The Cards have been an awful proposition as a home favourite, covering just 2 of their last 10. When laying more than a touchdown, they are 2-5 ATS since 2011. The Jets are 8-4 ATS on the road getting more than a touchdown.
Best Record: 5-0
Value Record: 3-2