NFL Preview: Week 5
The Wolf runs his eye over Week 5 NFL action and gives his recommended bet for each game.
Arizona @ San Francisco: San Francisco +3.5 ($1.90)
San Francisco are 7-4 ATS since 2011 as a home underdog while they have covered their last three at home v the NFC West. Home underdogs of 3.5 or more are 40-30-1 ATS since 2006 in Week 5. QB Carson Palmer has been ruled out for the Cards.
Chicago @ Indianapolis: Indianapolis -4.5 ($1.90)
The Colts are 10-6 ATS since 2011 at home when favoured by 3.5 or more. In Week 5 home favourites of 3.5 or more are 40-30-1 ATS since 2006. Low confidence this game.
Houston @ Minnesota: Minnesota -6 ($1.90)
The Vikings at home are close to the best bet in the NFL. Since 2011 they are 28-15 ATS with covers in 18 of their last 23. They are 8-4 ATS since 2011 when favoured by more than a field goal. The Texans have covered just two of their last eight and are 7-12-1 ATS since 2011 when getting more than 3 points on the road. Houston have covered just 1 of their last 7 on the road to the NFC.
New England @ Cleveland: Over 46.5 ($1.90)
Tom Brady is back for the Patriots. Gronk is nearing full health. Expect the Pats offense to come out firing against a porous Browns defence that has conceded at least 25 in all four games. The last four Pats-Browns games have gone over the total while the over is 10-3 Weeks 5-8 when a home underdog of 10 or more is in play. The over is 8-3 since 2013 when a road favourite was held to single digits the start prior.
NY Jets @ Pittsburgh: Over 48 ($1.90)
The over is 19-12 in Week 5 with a home favourite of 7 or more while the over is 54-45-2 since 2011 when the road underdog of 7 or more scored 14 points or less the week prior. The over is 7-4 when the Jets are a road dog of 7-plus while the over has hit in three straight when the Steelers have been favoured by 7 or more at home.
Philadelphia @ Detroit: Detroit +3 ($1.90)
Philadelphia are an awful 3-7 ATS as a road favourite since 2012 and despite a good start to the season need to be taken on. The Lions are an excellent 12-3 ATS after being held to 15 or less the week prior. Detroit have covered 3 of the last 4 in this matchup.
Tennessee @ Miami: Tennessee +3.5 ($1.90)
The Dolphins are 4-9 ATS as a home favourite of 3 or more since 2012. Home favourites of 3 or more who scored single digits the last start cover at just 43.6%. Miami are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 against teams with a losing record. The underdog has covered 4 of the last 5 in this matchup. The Titans are hardly reliable on the road but laying points on Miami is madness.
Washington @ Baltimore: Washington +4 ($1.90)
The Ravens have covered just 2 of their last 13 home games and have dropped seven straight on home turf when favoured by more than a field goal. The Redskins have covered four straight road games and four straight road games getting more than a field goal. Baltimore have covered just 2 of their last 12 off a loss.
Atlanta @ Denver: Atlanta +6 ($1.90)
Denver have covered just 2 of their last 9 when favoured by 6 or more at home. Atlanta have covered 3 of their last 4 getting 4 or more on the road. The Falcons have covered three straight this season and have posted three straight games scoring 35-plus.
Buffalo @ Los Angeles: Los Angeles -2.5 ($1.90)
A great angle at play here with home favourites of 2.5 or less 31-22 ATS Weeks 5-8 since 2006. The Rams have covered 9 of their last 14 home games while the Bills have covered just 1 of their last 6 road games. Buffalo have failed to cover four straight on grass.
Cincinnati @ Dallas: Cincinnati -1 ($1.90)
The Bengals have covered five straight as a road favourite and enter this off a fantastic defensive performance holding Miami to just 7 points. They are 18-10 ATS on the road since 2011 after scoring 21 points. Dallas have covered just 3 of their last 15 at home.
San Diego @ Oakland: San Diego +3.5 ($1.90)
San Diego shape as one of the best bets of Week 5 getting over a field goal. The Chargers have incredibly covered seven straight and 17 of their last 19 back to 2012 on the road getting 3 or more. They have covered 7 of their last 8 on the road all-up. Oakland have failed to cover five straight at home.
NY Giants @ Green Bay: Over 48 ($1.90)
Since 2011 with a home favourite of 7-pluis and a total of 47.5 or bigger, the over hits at a super 64-44-2. Weeks 5 since 2006 with a home favourite of 7 or more, the over is 19-12. The Packers are 16-12 at home when favoured by 7 or more since 2011. The Giants are 8-4 over as a road underdog since 2014.
Tampa Bay @ Carolina: No Line Available
Cam Newton in doubt so no betting lines available.
Best Record: 4-0
Value Record: 2-2