NFL Preview: Week 4
The Wolf runs his eye over Week 4 NFL action and gives his recommended bet for each game.
Miami @ Cincinnati: Over 44.5 ($1.90)
The key angle in this one is taking the over Weeks 1-4 with a home favourite of 7-plus points, which is 72-59-4 over. In Week 4 specifically it is 21-14 over since 2006. Both teams are 2-1 over this year. The Bengals are 12-6 over at home after scoring 17 or fewer the week prior.
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (London): Over 49 ($1.90)
London games have typically been high-scoring with 7 of the 9 games played at Wembley topping 48 points and all matches surpassing 40 over that time. The over is 6-1 in the Colts’ last seven on grass.
Carolina @ Atlanta: Atlanta +3 ($1.90)
Home underdogs of exactly 3 are an incredible 13-2-1 ATS in Week 4 since 2006 while in the opening month of the year the home underdog is 34-19-3 ATS. Carolina have failed to cover their last four as a road favourite while the Falcons have covered 7 of their last 8 as a home underdog.
Cleveland @ Washington: Over 46.5 ($1.90)
The over has hit in 15 of the last 18 Washington games where they have scored 28 the week prior while they are 10-7 over as a home favourite. The over is 13-3 in the Redskins’ last 16 off a cover while it is 6-0 in their last six on grass. The over is 72-59-4 Weeks 1-4 with a home favourite of more than a touchdown.
Detroit @ Chicago: Under 47.5 ($1.90)
The under is 33-20-3 since 2006 with a home underdog bang on three points. The under has hit in the last five Detroit road favourite games with no total topping 44 while the under is 11-5 in the last 16 Chicago home games. The under is 17-10-2 since 2015 when a road favourite of up to 3 scored 27 or more the week prior.
Oakland @ Baltimore: Over 46.5 ($1.90)
The over is 104-87-8 since 2006 when there is a home favourite of between 3.5 and 7 Weeks 1-4, making the over a play here. The over has hit in 6 of the last 8 when Oakland have got 3.5 or more on the road while it is 4-0 in their last four after conceding 15 or fewer the previous week. The over is 6-1 in Ravens games against a winning team while the two matches between these teams since 2012 have topped 70 points.
Seattle @ NY Jets: New York Jets +2.5 ($1.90)
Since 2010 the Jets are 9-4-1 ATS as a home underdog including a 6-1-1 ATS number in their last eight. Home underdogs that scored single digits the week prior cover at 59.2% since 2010. Seattle have failed to cover their last five off a win.
Tennessee @ Houston: Houston -5 ($1.90)
Don’t mind the injury to JJ Watt – the Texans are going to whip the Titans this week. Houston have covered 6 of their last 8 at home while they are 8-2 ATS at home spotting more than 3 points in their last 10. The Titans are 5-13 ATS since December 2013 on the road getting 3 or more points. Since 2008 the Texans are 12-3 ATS v Tennessee.
Denver @ Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay +3 ($1.90)
Home underdogs of exactly three in Week 4 are 13-2-1 ATS since 2006 with Weeks 1-4 34-19-1 ATS. The Broncos have covered just 1 of their last 4 as a road favourite. Home underdogs who scored 28 plus the week prior are 8-5-1 ATS since the start of the 2015 season.
Dallas @ San Francisco: San Francisco +3 ($1.90)
Home underdogs of exactly three in Week 4 are 13-2-1 ATS since 2006 with Weeks 1-4 34-19-1 ATS. The Niners are 8-3-1 ATS as a home underdog since 2010, going under in 8 of their last 9. The Cowboys have covered just 1 of their last 4 as a road favourite after scoring 28 or more the week prior.
Los Angeles @ Arizona: Over 42.5 ($1.90)
The over is 72-59-4 since 2006 Weeks 1-4 with a home favourite of 7 or more while in Week 4 the over is 21-14. Not a lot of confidence here though with a lot of strong unders angles.
New Orleans @ San Diego: San Diego -4 ($1.90)
Neither team can defend in this one so there is shootout potential but there are enough under angles to scare off. The Chargers should be able to gash the Saints with the running game. The Saints have covered just 1 of their last 7.
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh -4.5 ($1.90)
The Steelers are highly reliable as a home favourite, covering at a rate of 57.9% when a home elect of 3 or more points. They have covered 7 of their last 9 as a home favourite of 3.5 or more. They have covered both games at home since 2010 after being held to single digits the week prior. The Chiefs have covered just 1 of their last 6 getting 3 or more on the road.
NY Giants @ Minnesota: Over 40 ($1.90)
The over has hit in 7 of the last 9 Giants road games where they have been a road underdog of 3.5 or more. The Vikings have gone over in 5 of their last 7 as a home favourite of 3 or more. The over hits at 104-87-1 Weeks 1-4 with a home favourite of 3.5 to 7 points.
Best Record: 3-0
Value Record: 1-2