NFL Preview: Week 3
The Wolf runs his eye over Week 3 NFL action and gives his recommended bet for each game
Houston @ New England: New England +1 ($1.91)
Bill Bellichick is 12-3 ATS with 10 straight-up wins as a home underdog at New England, an incredible record. In the three matches the Pats have been home underdogs since 2005, they have won all three outright, two by margins of 22-plus. Small home underdogs Week 1-4 since 2005 are 71-52-4 ATS. Even with a likely third-string quarterback and no Gronk, the Patriots are still an outstanding bet.
Arizona @ Buffalo: Buffalo +4.5 ($1.90)
Home underdogs of 3.5 to 7 are 49-41-1 ATS since 2005 Weeks 1-4 including a 25-16-1 record in Week 3. Since 2011 Buffalo are 12-5 ATS as a home underdog and have covered 5 of their last 7 as a home underdog of 3 or more. Road favourites of 3 or more off scoring 35 points are 23-35-2 ATS over the same span.
Baltimore @ Jacksonville: Under 47 ($1.90)
The under is 11-2 when the Ravens have tackled the AFC South since 2011 while it is 8-3 when the Jags have played the AFC North. The under has hit in the last five meetings between the teams.
Cleveland @ Miami: Miami -10 ($1.90)
Big home favourites are typically strong bets in the first four weeks of the season, going 33-26 ATS since 2005. It is also worth playing against road favourites of 10 or more off scoring 21 or less, teams in said situation covering just 13 of 43 since 2011.
Denver @ Cincinnati: Denver +3 ($1.90)
Under Gary Kubiak, Denver are a perfect 7-0 ATS as an underdog while the Bengals are terrible bets as a small home favourite going 0-4-1 ATS since 2011. Small road underdogs are 69-58-9 since 2005 making the Broncos a quality play.
Detroit @ Green Bay: Detroit +7.5 ($1.90)
Detroit were terribly disappointing against Tennessee last week but as a big outsider they are the bet here. The Packers offense is struggling and home favourites of 7 or more are 4-8 ATS since 2014 after scoring 14 points or fewer the week prior. Road dogs of 7-plus are 11-4 ATS when scoring 15 or fewer the week prior.
Minnesota @ Carolina: Over 43 ($1.90)
The over is 10-3 in the last 13 Panther home games while the over is 108-96-8 Weeks 1-4 since 2005 when a home team is favoured by 3.5 to 7. The average total when a home favourite of 7-plus scored 42 the week prior is 50.8. The over has hit in 4 of the last 5 matches the Panthers have played the NFC North.
Oakland @ Tennessee: Oakland +1.5 ($1.90)
There is a great angle here playing small road outsiders early in the season with road underdogs up to 2.5 44-31-1 ATS since 2005 in Weeks 1-4 including 14-7 ATS in Week 3. The Titans are an awful 13-27-1 ATS since 2011 at home including just 5 covers in their last 23 home games. The Raiders are 4-2 ATS as a small road underdog since 2006
Washington @ NY Giants: Over 45.5 ($1.90)
The angle here is the betting the over in games with a home favourite between 3.5 and 7 points, which is 108-96-8 since 2005. The Giants are 10-5-1 over when playing at home after scoring fewer than 17 points the week prior.
Los Angeles @ Tampa Bay: Los Angeles +5.5 ($1.90)
The Rams have covered five straight against the Bucs dating back to 2010.with four straight wins off the stick. Since 2011 favourites of 3.5 or more who were held to single digits the start prior cover at just 37.9%. The Bucs have failed to cover their last four on grass.
San Francisco @ Seattle: San Francisco +9.5 ($1.90)
The Seahawks have scored just one touchdown all season so it is a hard pill to swallow laying 9.5. Favourites of 7 or more who scored 3 points the week prior are 1-6 ATS since 2011 while those who scored single digits the week prior are 6-12 ATS. Seattle have covered 9 straight against San Fran though so proceed with caution.
NY Jets @ Kansas City: New York +3 ($1.90)
Small road outsiders in the first four weeks of the season are 69-58-9 since 2005 with a 24-9-3 record in Week 3. The Chiefs have failed to cover their last four at home and are 8-15 ATS since 2011 when favoured by 3 or more.
Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia: Philadelphia +3.5 ($1.90)
Home underdogs of 3.5 to 7 are 49-41-1 ATS since 2005 Weeks 1-4 including a 25-16-1 record in Week 3. Philly have covered their last three and are 11-7-1 ATS since 2011 when a road underdog of 3 or more. Carson Wentz is the real deal.
San Diego @ Indianapolis: San Diego +3 ($1.90)
The Colts are a six-win team at best while the Chargers look to be a serious team, at least on the offensive side of the ball. Small road outsiders in the first four weeks of the season are 69-58-9 since 2005 with a 24-9-3 record in Week 3. San Diego have covered 7 straight on the road and are 25-17-1 ATS since 2011 away from home.
Chicago @ Dallas: Chicago +7 ($1.90)
Dallas are a far superior team to Chicago but they are unreliable as a big home favourite going 1-8 ATS since 2011 when favoured by a touchdown or more. The Bears have covered their last three as a road underdog of 7 or more and have covered 6 of their last 8 away from the Windy City.
Atlanta @ New Orleans: Atlanta +3 ($1.90)
The outsider has covered five straight in this NFC South matchup and backing the run to continue here. Small road underdogs are 24-9-3 ATS in Week 3 since 2005. Atlanta have covered 3 of their last 4 on the road getting 3 or more points. The Saints have covered just 2 of their last 11 at home when favoured by 3 or more.
Best Record: 2-0
Value Record: 0-2