NFL Preview: Week 2

NFL Betting

The Wolf runs his eye over Week 2 NFL action and gives his recommended bet for each game.

NFL Preview: Week 2

The Wolf runs his eye over Week 2 NFL action and gives his recommended bet for each game.

NFL Preview: Week 2

Friday, 9am
NY Jets @ Buffalo:
Buffalo +1 ($1.86)
Home underdogs up to 3 in the first four weeks of the season are 66-49-4 which provides for a great starting point to bet Buffalo. The Bills have also won and covered five straight against the Jets including both matchups last year when former Jets coach Rex Ryan took over the Bills. Buffalo have won 3 of their last 4 home games against the Bills by margins of 17-plus.

Monday, 3am
Baltimore @ Cleveland:
Over 43 ($1.90)
The Browns are close a bet here but with RGIII done for the year would prefer not to have the hard-earned on. The over though is a super bet with the over 15-6 in Week 2 when a team is a home underdog of bigger than a field goal. Four of the last five Cleveland games have gone over with the games last year tallying 63 and 60.

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh -3 ($1.90)
The Bengals have covered nine straight road games but a deeper dive shows they are 5-8-2 in their last 15 when a road dog of 3 or more. The Steelers have just four non-covers in their last 17 home games and are 7-3 ATS v the AFC North at home since 2013.

Dallas @ Washington: Dallas +2.5 ($1.90)
Road underdogs of 0.5 to 2.5 are an excellent 40-26-1 ATS since 2006 in the first four weeks of the season while in Week 2 are 15-9-2 ATS. The road team has won five straight in this rivalry matchup.

Kansas City @ Houston: Kansas City +2 ($1.90)
The small road underdog angle is again at play here with road dogs of 2.5 or smaller 40-26-1 ATS in Weeks 1-4 since 2006 with Week 2 bringing a 15-9-2 ATS number. Since ’13 the Chiefs are 18-8-1 ATS on the road. The Texans are 11-15-1 ATS at home over the same time. These two met in the playoffs last year with the Chiefs winning 30-0.

Miami @ New England: Over 41.5 ($1.90)
Difficult game with the best angle being the over with a home favourite of between 3.5 and 7 points hitting at 97-82-8 back to 2006. The over has hit in 12 of the last 19 Pats home games when they have been favoured by 6 or more.

New Orleans @ NY Giants: Over 53 ($1.90)
The same angle as in the Dolphins-Pats game is in play here but with much more enthusiasm considering the Saints conceded 35 points and 500-plus yards last week. The over has hit in four straight Giants home games when they have been favoured by more than a field goal. The teams have met four times since 2009 with totals of 75, 73, 79 and 101.

San Francisco @ Carolina: Under 45.5 ($1.90)
The under has hit in 12 of the last 15 games where there has been a home double-digit favourite while the under is 10-3-1 in Week 2 with a home favourite of 10 or more.

Tennessee @ Detroit: Detroit -5.5 ($1.90)
Since December 1, 2013 the Titans are an awful 4-15 ATS on the road. The Lions have covered 5 of their last 7 as a home favourite of 3 or more. Since 2013 home favourites of 3 or more who score 35 the week prior are 35-25-2 ATS.

Monday, 6.05am
Seattle @ LA Rams:
No Line
No line in this one with Russell Wilson in major doubt.

Tampa Bay @ Arizona: Tampa Bay +6.5 ($1.90)
The Cardinals have covered just 1 of their last 8 as a home favourite of 3 or more including a bad loss to the Pats in Week 1. The Bucs have covered 9 of their last 14 road games getting 3 or more.

Monday, 6.25am
Atlanta @ Oakland:
Over 49.5 ($1.90)
The over is 97-82-8 Weeks 1-4 with a home favourite between a field goal and a touchdown and is an incredible 13-4-1 over when the home fave scored 28 or more the week prior. The under has saluted in just 4 of the last 16 Raiders home games.

Indianapolis @ Denver: Over 45.5 ($1.90)
The over is 97-82-8 Weeks 1-4 with a home favourite between a field goal and a touchdown, as per the Falcons-Raiders clash. The Colts have gone over in 5 of their last 7 road games and 8 of their last 12 road games after scoring 28 or more points.

Jacksonville @ San Diego: San Diego -3 ($1.90)
The Chargers and Jags have met five times since 20010 with the Chargers winning and covering on each occasion. Jacksonville are 1-5 ATS since 2011 when a road underdog of 3 or less.

Monday, 10.30am
Green Bay @ Minnesota:
Minnesota +2.5 ($1.90)
Small home underdogs (3 or less) in the opening four weeks of the season are 66-49-4 ATS while in Week 2 they are 15-9-2 ATS. The Vikings are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning record.

Tuesday, 10.30am
Philadelphia @ Chicago:
Philadelphia +3 ($1.90)
The Chicago Bears are the worst home betting team in the NFL, covering just 5 of 24 home games dating back to 2013 including a 1-6-2 ATS record last year. The Eagles have covered 5 of their last 7 as a road underdog.

Best: Over 49.5 Atlanta-Oakland ($1.90)
Value:
Kansas City ($2.15)

Record: 8-8
Best Record: 1-0
Value Record:
0-1

 

 

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