Super Bowl LII Preview
New England Patriots v Philadelphia Eagles
Monday, February 5, 10.30AM AEDT
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minnesota
It will be a rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX when the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles clash in Super Bowl LII in Minnesota.
Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will be making his eighth Super Bowl appearance and aiming for his sixth career championship.
Meanwhile, the Eagles will be hoping for a different result from when they last played in the Super Bowl, ironically losing to the Patriots 24-21 in 2005.
It shapes up as an intriguing battle between the No.2 ranked Patriots offence (28.2 PPG) and the No.2 ranked Eagles defence (17.3 PPG).
The last thing that the Eagles will want to do is get in a shootout with Tom Brady, so will rely heavily on their running game through Jay Ajayi and take the heat off back-up quarterback Nick Foles.
The Eagles had the third most rush yards during the regular season (2115), while the Patriots allowed 4.6 yards per carry on the ground to opposition running backs. Unfortunately, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is a mastermind at taking away the strongest weapon of the opposition and will look to stack the box against the run, forcing Foles to replicate his heroics against the Vikings and throw the ball downfield.
The Eagles booked their spot in Super Bowl LII, with a crushing 38-7 win over the Vikings in the NFC Championship game. Foles was sensational, completing 23 of his 33 passes for 352 yards and three touchdowns. Zach Ertz (8/93) and Alshon Jeffrey (5/85, 2 TDs) were the the go-to weapons for Foles and will be heavily targeted again if the Eagles can’t get their ground game going. Whether Foles can replicate that performance in the biggest game of all and on a neutral field remains to be seen?
Not only were the Eagles dominant on offence, but their defence came to the party too. They were responsible for two interceptions, with one going for a pick-six to Eagles corner back Patrick Robinson.
The Eagles defence has allowed just over 8 points over their last 4 games, however, all four of those games were at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. On the road, the Eagles have allowed 23.5 points per game.
Patriots future hall of fame quarterback, Tom Brady, exploited the Jaguars secondary, in particular, AJ Bouye, in their 24-20 AFC Championship win, with Brandon Cooks having a field day and helping himself to 100 receiving yards. Danny Amendola also had a game to remember, with 84 receiving yards and two TDs.
The Patriots only had 46 rushing yards for the game against the Jaguars compared to 298 passing yards. The Wolf is expecting a similar balance here, with the Eagles corners in Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby to be targeted.
Brady has averaged 296 passing yards in his seven Super Bowls and The Wolf will be all over the 294.5 passing yards for Brady here.
There is statistics to back-up both sides but at the end of the day, The Wolf is going to always take Brady over any defence in the league.
Both the Patriots and Eagles went 12-6 ATS including playoffs this season.
The Patriots are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS loss, while the Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. In fact, underdogs have gone 13-4 ATS in the last 17 Super Bowls.
The Wolf would have considered the idea of the Eagles when they were at +6.5 , but with the line moving to 4.5, there is only one side he wants to be on.
The Patriots are 28-9 ATS over the past two seasons including playoffs. That’s the best record for a team covering the spread in the NFL over a two-season period.
The total game total is currently set at 48, with the under hitting in 10 of the last 14 Patriots games, including six of the last eight away from Gillette Stadium.
There’s no question that the Patriots can put points on the board, but Foles might have played his Super Bowl a fortnight ago and won’t want to go toe-to-toe in a shootout with Brady.
It’s the Patriots to cover and the unders for The Wolf.
Best: New England -4.5 ($1.92)
Total: Under 48 ($1.92)
Super Bowl MVP Winner: Tom Brady ($1.67)
Super Bowl MVP Winner (Value Bet): Brandin Cooks ($15)
1st Touchdown Scorer: Brandin Cooks ($11)
Score Prediction: Patriots 27, Eagles 17 ($67)