AFL Preview: Swans v Tigers

AFL Preview Round 23 - Swans v Tigers
AFL Preview: Round 23
Sydney v Richmond
4.35pm AEST, Saturday, August 27
SCG, Sydney
Best Bet: Richmond Line +47.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Both Teams To Score 60 Points – No ($1.62)

Sydney need a win to cement a top two spot, against a side known for troubling them.

Form
Sydney brings a five week winning streak into this match, having taken care of Carlton, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, St Kilda and North in consecutive weeks, adding 10 points to their percentage over this time.

Richmond has won one of their last five games, but have forced the issue in their last two losses, going down by single figure margins to both St Kilda and Geelong. Prior to that was a win over Collingwood when they were most under siege.

Stats That Matter

Richmond has won six of the last ten meetings between the sides, including the last three games, two of which have been in Sydney.

Sydney have won six of their last eight matches at the SCG this season, and ten of their last 12, with both losses by less than a goal. The Swans have covered the line in 50% of their SCG games in the last two years.

Richmond is one win from five interstate matches this year, at -67% POT and 20% ATS. They are +37% POT interstate in the last three seasons, ranked AFL #1. The Tigers have won their last three matches in Sydney, and five of their last six.

DT Talk Player Prop Bets

AFL DreamTeam Talk Bets
Luke Parker is set for a huge week. At the SCG he averages 131 Fantasy points in his last five games and at $4, he’s the one for me. I actually like him across a few markets as well with handballs ($6) and possessions ($6) both presenting as great value. This should be a pretty ‘bruise free’ style of game. Bachar Houli ($4.50) is worth a look for most marks, considering that Kangaroo’s Jamie Macmillian took a game high 11 last week against the Swans.

Betting Data
2016 Line: Sydney 13-8, Richmond 6-14
2016 Over/Under: Sydney 8-11, Richmond 9-10

Final Thoughts

Sydney have had their issues with Richmond in the past, and almost have some sort of mental block against them. This may be exacerbated by the fact that if the Swans lose, they could slip from top spot right out of the top four.

So much at stake, the form of the Swans midfield, and the lack of form of the Tigers should all combine for a simple assignment for Sydney, regardless of recent history. If Buddy Franklin doesn’t come up from a hip injury, this frees up Alex Rance to control the Swans forward half, which may prove difficult to overcome.

Sydney should have too much fire-power to drop this one, but Richmond’s record against them says they cover the line.

How It’s Shaping Up
Sydney by 31 points

Best Bet
Richmond Line +47.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
Both Teams To Score 60 Points – No ($1.62) 

The Wolf’s Round 23 AFL Tips

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