|AFL Preview: Round 23
St Kilda v Brisbane
1.10pm AEST, Sunday, August 28
Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
|Best Bet: St Kilda Total 121+ Points ($1.71)
Other Bet: 2nd Half Total – Over 100.5 ($1.87)
The Saints would love to put an exclamation mark on their season, and could this be Justin Leppitsch’s last game as coach?
St Kilda have won five of their last seven, and have stamped themselves as potential finalists next year. They ground out an ugly win over Richmond last week, were out-classed against Sydney the round prior, and beat Carlton by 71 the week before that.
Brisbane are coming off a 60 point loss to Geelong, but they have certainly put up many worse performances this season. Prior to that was a win against Carlton, and there has been enough there to suggest not everything is hopeless for them beyond this season.
Stats That Matter
St Kilda leads Brisbane 6-4 in their last ten meetings, but they have only met once a season for the last ten years. They have only played one match at Etihad in that time, back in 2009.
St Kilda are seven wins from 13 Etihad matches this season, at +15% POT and 54% ATS. They have lost their last two matches there, but prior to that had won six of seven. The Saints have covered in six of their last eight games at Etihad.
Brisbane have played nine interstate matches in 2016, winning one and covering the line in two. They average 129 points against on the road, ranked league #18. The Lions have four wins at Etihad from ten matches under Justin Leppitsch, at +18% POT and 40% ATS.
Both of these sides like to play attacking football, and with this being their last game of the season for each club, the scene is set for a game of little-to-no accountability. We often see these sort of games in the last round, particularly at Etihad, where the pressure is right off and football can almost become fun again for the participants.
On that basis, we can expect to see high scores, and it would be a surprise if the Saints can’t better their season-high score of 122 points, particularly with a forward-line that is capable of having several multiple goal-kickers.
How It’s Shaping Up
St Kilda by 50 points
St Kilda Total 121+ Points ($1.71)
Other Recommended Bets
2nd Half Total – Over 100.5 ($1.87)
The Wolf’s Round 23 AFL Tips
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