AFL Preview: Hawks v Magpies

AFL Preview Round 23 - Hawks v Magpies
AFL Preview: Round 23
Hawthorn v Collingwood
3.20pm AEST, Sunday, August 28
MCG, Melbourne
Best Bet: Collingwood +30.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Under 180.5 points ($1.88)

Hawthorn couldn’t drop this to the Pies and fall out of the top four, could they?

Form

Hawthorn are starting to look decidedly wobbly, losing two of their last three, with the losses to Melbourne and West Coast being extremely concerning. The Eagles pulverized them with pressure, and the Hawks lacked surety by hand and foot.

Collingwood have built a solid foundation over the second half of the year, to build their 2017 season upon. A confidence boosting win over Gold Coast last week followed a gallant loss to the Bulldogs, and they are in solid form to claim another scalp before seasons end.

Stats That Matter

Hawthorn have beaten Collingwood eight times in a row, with the closest of those being the most recent, by 10 points in Round 14 last year.

Hawthorn are six from nine at the MCG this season, at -11% POT and 38% ATS. The Hawks have covered the line in one of their last four games. They have lost four games as underdog this year, ranked equal AFL #3.

Collingwood have covered the line in three of their last four matches, and seven of their last nine. The Pies have won six of 13 at the MCG this season, at +12% POT, 46% ATS and 77% under total match score.
Betting Data
2016 Line: Hawthorn 8-13, Collingwood 11-10
2016 Over/Under: Hawthorn 8-11, Collingwood 7-12

Final Thoughts

Hawthorn are stumbling to the line in the home and away rounds, and Collingwood presents a tricky match-up to finish the season.

The Hawks have owned the Pies in recent years, and there is a gulf in class, but Hawthorn have looked particularly vulnerable against sides that are providing a physical presence around the ball, which is a strength of Collingwood at their best.

Hawthorn should be too professional to drop this match and fall out of the top four, but it won’t be one-way traffic, and the Pies can give them a scare.

How It’s Shaping Up
Hawthorn by 17 points 

Best Bet
Collingwood +30.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
Under 180.5 points ($1.88)

The Wolf’s Round 23 AFL Tips

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