|AFL Preview: Round 23
Geelong v Melbourne
1.45pm AEST, Saturday, August 27
Simonds Stadium, Geelong
|Best Bet: Geelong 1-39 ($2.20)
Other Bet: Both Teams To Score 70 Points – Yes ($2.10)
Geelong must win to secure their top four spot, while Melbourne’s finals dreams are over.
Geelong have somewhat quietly put together six wins in a row, including two top eight scalps in Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs, but also four wins against what are probably the four worst sides in the competition right now – Essendon, Brisbane, Fremantle and Richmond.
Melbourne had been running hot with wins over Gold Coast, Hawthorn and Port, the latter two being particularly convincing, but their form ran out against Carlton, when they looked off from the first bounce, and couldn’t claw it back.
Stats That Matter
Geelong lead Melbourne 9-1 in their last ten meetings, with the Demons win coming the last time they met, in Round 12 last year, down at Simonds Stadium.
Geelong has won six of seven matches at Simonds Stadium this season, at +18% POT and 71% ATS. They have covered the line in eight of their last ten matches there.
Melbourne is 1-6 (3-4 ATL) when playing away from MCG this season. Nine of their last 11 games have gone ‘under’ the total match points line.
DT Talk Player Prop Bets
Who am I? I’ve averaged 30 touches a game over the last five weeks? If you guessed Dangerfield, then you are wrong my friend. Dom Tyson is the correct answer and at $5.50 he’ll certainly give the most possession field a shake. In the AFL Fantasy market, Dangerfield ($2.50) is far too short against a team he has a shocking history against, so I’ll be rolling with Max Gawn ($4.50). He’s up against an average ruck line-up of Smith and Stanley. Max recorded 139 on the Cats last year and is currently averaging the third most points in the league over the last three rounds.
2016 Line: Geelong 9-11, Melbourne 13-8
2016 Over/Under: Geelong 7-12, Melbourne 7-12
With Melbourne keen to go out on a high to put an exclamation mark on a season of significant improvement, Geelong should get a solid hit out before their finals campaign. Motivation won’t be lacking for the Cats, given individuals are still playing for spots and the team must win to lock in a top four position.
Melbourne’s best football has been accompanied by a fierce attack on the ball and man, closing down opposition space. If they bring their best intensity, they can trouble Geelong’s run. The Cats won’t get things all their own way, but should still have enough overall class to get the job done.
How It’s Shaping Up
Geelong by 15 points
Geelong 1-39 ($2.20)
Other Recommended Bets
Both Teams To Score 70 Points – Yes ($2.10)
The Wolf’s Round 23 AFL Tips
If you are a stats guru don’t forget to check out our AFL betting database complete with historical data and stats.