|AFL Preview: Round 22
Richmond v St Kilda
2.10pm AEST, Saturday, August 20
|Best Bet: St Kilda WIN ($1.82)
Other Bet: St Kilda Margin 40+ ($6.50)
Most Goals – Jack Riewoldt
Richmond are coming off a heart-breaking loss, while the Saints were simply broken apart by Sydney last week.
Richmond have responded well to thumpings at the hands of Hawthorn and GWS, bouncing back to beat Collingwood, and then putting Geelong to the sword for three quarters before being unable to finish the job.
St Kilda got a taste of how far away they really are from the top four against the Swans last week, going down by 70 points after being within a goal at half time. Prior to that, they had beaten Carlton by 71 points themselves.
Stats That Matter
Richmond have won their last six games against St Kilda, and the Saints have not beaten Richmond at the MCG since 2007. Jack Riewoldt has been the leading goalkicker on the ground in six of the last nine matches between the sides.
Richmond are ranked 18 for covering the line this year, but have covered the last two weeks. They are +6% POT and 31% ATS at the MCG this season.
St Kilda have won their last three matches at the MCG, at starting prices of between $1.58 – $2.45. They are +24% POT and 71% ATS at the ground under Alan Richardson, as opposed to -66% POT and 24% ATS at other grounds away from Etihad.
DT Talk Player Prop Bets
The out of form Jack Steven ($5) is great value here for most touches, but he’s running like a donkey on three legs at the moment. He can’t find the ball, but against the Tigers at that value, I think this will be his bounce back game. Since returning from injury, Bachar Houli has been on fire averaging 10 marks a game in his last three. At $6, he’ll need to beat Nick Riewoldt but with the form he is in, he can certainly give it a mighty shake on the MCG.
This is a battle between fast and slow, with St Kilda being among the quickest ball movement teams in the competition, while Richmond tend to play more of a controlled possession game.
Both teams rank highly for disposal efficiency and marks inside 50, so we could see quite a skilled game with reasonably high scoring, but the difference between the sides is that the Saints are one of the best pressure sides in the competition while the Tigers are one of the worst.
St Kilda have been in much better form for a longer period of time than Richmond, and rather than reading too much into their respective results last week, the Saints look a good straight out bet.
How It’s Shaping Up
St Kilda by 22 points
St Kilda WIN ($1.82)
The Wolf’s Round 22 AFL Tips
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