|AFL Preview: Round 22
Brisbane v Geelong
3.20pm AEST, Sunday, August 21
|Best Bet: 3rd Quarter Line Geelong -14.5 ($1.87)
Other Bet: Over 195.5 points ($1.85)
Brisbane are bouncing off a win, while Geelong got away with a narrow escape last week.
Brisbane’s last four weeks have been quite the story. Two good wins, albeit against Essendon and Carlton, have sandwiched two huge losses, to Port by 94 points and Adelaide by 138. They are attacking well but struggling to defend.
Geelong have won five in a row, against Fremantle, Adelaide, the Western Bulldogs, Essendon and Richmond, but were lucky to beat the Tigers after being outplayed for the first three quarters.
Stats That Matter
Geelong has won nine of their last 10 matches against Brisbane, including four of their last five at the Gabba.
All 10 of Brisbane’s Gabba matches have gone over the total match points this season. They have conceded 128 points per game there on average.
Geelong has started $1.30 or less nine times this season, winning six, but only covering the line three times in those matches. They have three wins from four interstate games, at +25% POT and 50% ATS.
We’ve seen Brisbane show some signs of life with a couple of wins in the last month, but when they’ve faced the better sides, the Lions have crumbled as the game has gone on. Conversely, Geelong have had trouble playing anywhere near their best when hotly favoured to win by a big margin.
The result shouldn’t be in any doubt, but while percentage is an important factor, the Cats have shown that this isn’t enough motivation for them to bring their A-game at all times. It’s hard to know what to predict for them, but they may be able to carry on the momentum from last week’s fourth quarter.
How It’s Shaping Up
Geelong by 55 points
Other Recommended Bets
Over 195.5 points ($1.85)
The Wolf’s Round 22 AFL Tips
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