AFL Preview: Kangaroos v Swans

AFL Preview Round 22 - Kangaroos v Swans
AFL Preview: Round 22
North Melbourne v Sydney
1.45pm AEST, Saturday, August 20
Blundstone Arena, Hobart
Best Bet: Sydney -19.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Most Goals – Lance Franklin

North need to find some form, against a Sydney that is running white-hot.

North have now lost seven of their last nine matches, and couldn’t turn their wins over Collingwood and St Kilda into good form against the better sides. They have since lost to the Dogs in a scrappy affair, and were blown away early by Hawthorn last week.

Sydney have won four in a row, against Carlton, Fremantle, Port and St Kilda, with the last three wins coming at an average margin of 79 points, and have had no lower than 30 scoring shots in any of those games.

Stats That Matter

Sydney lead 8-2 in the last ten matches between the sides, including winning the only match played in Hobart. Sydney beat North by 26 points at the SCG in May.

Against top eight sides, North are two wins from nine matches, at -60% POT and 22% ATS. They have won eight in a row at Blundstone Arena, and since the start of 2013 they are +31% POT and 67% ATS there.

Sydney have won seven from nine interstate this season, at +24% POT and 66% ATS. Against top eight sides, they are five from nine, at +7% POT and 56% ATS.

DT Talk Player Prop Bets

AFL DreamTeam Talk Bets

Last week against the Roos, the Hawks accumulated massive numbers with midfielders Smith and Lewis combining for 21 marks. A roughie in this category has to be Callum Mills ($9). He was one off a team high with 8 marks last week and at that value, he’s worth a cheeky look. Josh P. Kennedy ($3) is always a sure bet for most handballs and when you look over his last four games you can see why. 26, 15, 29 and 23 are the amount of times he’s put fist to ball and if he can crack that 20+ mark again, it’s money in the bag.

Betting Data
2016 Line: North 9-11, Sydney 13-7
2016 Over/Under: North 8-11, Sydney 8-11

Final Thoughts

The Swans are flying in the race to finals, all but shoring up a top four finish by boosting their percentage to have the highest in the competition. North are stumbling over the line, and may not even get their yet.

Sydney simply bat too deep through the midfield for the Roos, with too much versatility and a forward-line that has clicked well into gear. At the other end of the ground, the Swans have the tightest defence in the league, and North has run into problems scoring with injuries to Waite and Brown, along with form issues to Petrie.

Sydney should win this comfortably and continue their run, and the line doesn’t look high enough.

How It’s Shaping Up
Sydney by 38 points 

Best Bet
Sydney -19.5 ($1.91)

 Other Recommended Bets
Most Goals – Lance Franklin 

The Wolf’s Round 22 AFL Tips

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