|AFL Preview: Round 22
West Coast v Hawthorn
8.10pm AEST, Friday, August 19
Domain Stadium, Perth
|Best Bet: Hawthorn WIN ($1.94)
Other Bet: Wire to Wire – Any Other Result ($1.98)
Last years grand finalists face off in the match of the round, with both teams coming off impressive wins.
A lot of negativity had been surrounding West Coast’s form, but they have won seven of their last eight. Since losing to Collingwood, they have beaten Fremantle in the derby, and then produced their best performance of the year last week, to defeat GWS with the last kick of the day.
Hawthorn responded to their Round 20 loss to Melbourne with an eight goal first term against North last week to put the match away nice and early, but they weren’t overly impressive in the three subsequent quarters.
Stats That Matter
Hawthorn has won eight of the last ten matches between the sides, including by 46 points at the MCG in Round 2 last year. The teams are 2-2 at Domain Stadium since the start of 2012.
West Coast have won 10 from 11 at Domain this season, at +6% POT, covering the line in nine of those matches. The have won 21 of their last 23 at the venue. Hawthorn is the only Victorian team to beat West Coast at Domain in the last two years.
Hawthorn have won seven of their eight interstate matches this year, at +19% POT but only 25% ATS. They are three from four interstate at +30% POT and 50% ATS if disregarding their home games in Tasmania. The Hawks have played six games at Domain since 2012, going 3-3 having started between $1.54 and $2.05 in that time.
DT Talk Player Prop Bets
With this one starting a little later than usual, you’ve got plenty of time to get on some rippers. Jordan Lewis has been on fire since round 11 and hasn’t put a foot wrong. He had 126 AFL Fantasy points last week and is paying $4 to take the chocolates tonight. The best bet for the night though is Matt Priddis to lay the most tackles ($3.25). Priddis and Liam Shiels ($3) share the honour as the league’s best tackler at the moment averaging 8.4 a game, but tonight I’ll be all over Priddis to move ahead on his home ground.
Psychology will be at play in this one, given the Hawks strong record against West Coast in recent times, and the maulings they handed out in last year’s grand final, and the re-match in Round 2 this season.
On each occasion the Eagles froze on the big stage, and while those matches were at the MCG, any mental gains West Coast may have gained from defeating Hawthorn in week one of the 2016 finals have surely been lost.
Hawthorn have more at stake given a loss will see them lose their grip on top two spot, while even a West Coast win still makes top four an unlikely proposition. That extra mental edge should see them get up in a close one, as they’ve done previously this year.
How It’s Shaping Up
Hawthorn by 9 points
Hawthorn WIN ($1.94)
Other Recommended Bets
Wire to Wire – Any Other Result ($1.98)
The Wolf’s Round 22 AFL Tips
If you are a stats guru don’t forget to check out our AFL betting database complete with historical data and stats.