AFL Preview: Blues v Demons

AFL Preview Round 22 - Blues v Demons
AFL Preview: Round 22
Carlton v Melbourne
1.10pm AEST, Sunday, August 21
MCG, Melbourne
Best Bet: Melbourne Line -23.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Both Teams to Score 70 points – No ($1.96)

Carlton would love to find a win before season’s end, but Melbourne are finishing the season hard.

Form

Carlton have now lost nine in a row, but four of them have been by two goals or less. They were extremely poor early against Brisbane last week, before hitting back late. Prior to that was their worst performance of the year, when losing to St Kilda by 71 points.

Melbourne have won three in a row for the first time in a decade, just reward for four weeks of good form which kicked off with a six point loss to West Coast in Perth. Since then, they’ve beaten Gold Coast, Hawthorn and Port.

Stats That Matter

Carlton have won eight of their last nine against Melbourne, with those matches dating back to 2008.

Melbourne are seven wins from 11 games at the MCG this season, at +45% POT and 73% ATS. Carlton are two wins from seven matches there, at -43% POT and 57% ATS.

The Blues are three wins from 16 games against teams currently above them on the ladder, at -20% POT and 50% ATS. Melbourne are seven wins from 11 matches against teams currently below them on the ladder at +15% POT and 55% ATS.

Betting Data
2016 Line: Carlton 11-9, Melbourne 13-7
2016 Over/Under: Carlton 7-12, Melbourne 7-12

Final Thoughts

Melbourne are in about the hottest form they’ve been for ten years, and the question now is how long they can sustain it. If they can, Carlton, well below their best in the last two weeks, are there for the taking.

Of course, the Blues might have one final surge in them, even though it looks like they are feeling a long season, and their good record against the Demons might be the tonic they need. Will Melbourne freeze in sight of the final eight, or will they be spurred on?

If we take the psychology out of it, Melbourne are a much better side than Carlton, in much better form, and have the Blues covered in every part of the ground.

How It’s Shaping Up
Melbourne by 45 points

Best Bet
Melbourne Line -23.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
Both Teams to Score 70 points – No ($1.96)

The Wolf’s Round 22 AFL Tips

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