|AFL Preview: Round 21
Port Adelaide v Melbourne
7.40pm AEST, Saturday, August 13
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
|Best Bet: Melbourne +15.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Melbourne WIN ($2.80)
Port are coming off their worst loss, Melbourne off their best win.
Port’s season continues to be inconsistent from week to week, never better summed up than going from a 94 point Round 19 win over Brisbane to a 67 point Round 20 loss to Sydney.
Melbourne recorded a Paul Roos era-defining win against Hawthorn last week, with a performance full of attitude and skill. Prior to that was an ugly win over Gold Coast at the MCG and a loss to West Coast in Perth where they dominated everything but the scoreboard.
Stats That Matter
Port have won their last seven matches against Melbourne, including earlier this year by 45 points. Two of these wins have been at Adelaide Oval, but both single figure margins.
Port has lost four matches as favourite this year. They are -51% POT and 40% ATS at Adelaide Oval this season, as opposed to +20% POT and 56% ATS elsewhere. Four of their last five matches there have gone under.
Melbourne has won five matches as underdog this season, the equal second in the league. They have three wins from 17 matches interstate under Paul Roos, at -26% POT and 47% ATS. They have covered the line in four of their six interstate matches this year.
DT Talk Player Prop Bets
After a poor game last week, I’m hoping that Robbie Gray bounces back and actually finds the ball this week. He managed 7 touches against the Swans but in the three games prior to that he was averaging 30 disposals. He had 28 touches against the Demons in round 10 and at $6, surely he’ll try much harder this week. He is also worth a look to lead the Fantasy market paying $7.
If we take last week’s results on trust and expect the same from both sides, then Melbourne should be $1.20 and are incredibly over the odds. But we know sport simply doesn’t work that way.
The Demons look a candidate for a mental drop-off after such a landmark win, while Port are renowned for their yo-yo ways and should respond. Both sides will know the Power has a stranglehold on Melbourne too, based on recent results.
Still, the Demons look the clear value if both sides perform somewhere near their average for 2016, and they can knock another monkey off their back here. A little saver on a big Port win wouldn’t go astray though.
How It’s Shaping Up
Melbourne by 14 points
Melbourne +15.5 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
Melbourne WIN ($2.80)
The Wolf’s Round 21 AFL Tips
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