AFL Preview: Hawks v Kangaroos

AFL Preview Round 21 - Hawks v Kangaroos
AFL Preview: Round 21
Hawthorn v North Melbourne
2.10pm AEST, Saturday, August 13
MCG, Melbourne
Best Bet: Hawthorn 1-39 ($2.10)
Other Bet: Wire to Wire – Any Other Result ($2.15)

Hawthorn have put themselves at risk with last week’s loss to Melbourne, and need to bounce back.

Hawthorn’s nine match winning run came to an end against Melbourne last week, when their form and luck ran out. Prior to that they were pushed all the way by Carlton, demolished Richmond, and were lucky to escape against Sydney.

North Melbourne had won two in a row against Collingwood and St Kilda to restore some momentum to their season, but couldn’t keep it going last week against the Western Bulldogs, unable to break down their defence.

Stats That Matter

Hawthorn leads North 8-2 in their last 10 meetings, including six of the last seven. Only one of these matches has been at the MCG, which the Hawks won by three points in 2013.

Hawthorn are -11% POT and 38% ATS at the MCG this season, as opposed to +24% POT and 27% ATS elsewhere. They are the only team to average more than 100 points at the venue since the start of 2014.

North are playing their first game at the MCG this season. Since the start of 2012, they are seven wins from ten matches there at 29% POT, 70% ATS, and 70% over total match score.

DT Talk Player Prop Bets

AFL DreamTeam Talk Bets

Tough game to find many ‘certainties’ but the best in this game must be Luke Hodge ($3.25) in group B to have the most touches. His competition is only MacMillan, Gibson and Ziebell. Jordan Lewis ($2.30) is good value to have 30+ touches and hit that marks with ease in round 13 when they played the Roos.

Betting Data
2016 Line: Hawthorn 7-12, North 9-10
2016 Over/Under: Hawthorn 11-8, North 8-11

Final Thoughts

Hawthorn’s loss to Melbourne last week was the one they had to have, but will it sharpen them up for the run to finals, or was it a sign of their overall malaise? 

If North were displaying the form of earlier in the season, and hadn’t been struck by so much injury, there would be a strong case to back them here, especially given they got within nine points of them back in June. But how much is too much for the Roos to have lost, and we know Hawthorn’s pride will kick in to prevent them losing two in a row.

North’s best chance is to make this a physical contest, as they did last time, and try to crack the Hawks that way, and they should be able to stick with them.

How It’s Shaping Up
Hawthorn by 21 points 

Best Bet
Hawthorn 1-39 ($2.10)

Other Recommended Bets
Wire to Wire – Any Other Result ($2.15)

The Wolf’s Round 21 AFL Tips

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