AFL Preview: Giants v Eagles

AFL Preview Round 21 - Giants v Eagles
AFL Preview: Round 21
Greater Western Sydney v West Coast
4.35pm AEST, Saturday, August 13
Spotless Stadium, Sydney
Best Bet: GWS -24.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Over 181.5 points ($1.85)

The loser of this one may forfeit the right to a top four position.

GWS have won four in a row, and seven of their last eight, but in an inconsistent manner. They struggled all game to shake off Gold Coast last round, blitzed Richmond early the previous week, and had to mount a significant fightback against Port prior.

West Coast have won six of their last seven, bouncing back from a loss to Collingwood at the MCG with a solid win over Fremantle in their more comfortable Perth surrounds. But no-one within in the club is thinking they are playing their best football.

Stats That Matter

West Coast has won all four matches between the sides, with the teams only having met once a year since the Giants inception. The Eagles average winning margin is 95 points, with their lowest winning margin being 81 points.

GWS are five wins from six matches at Spotless this year, at +26% POT, covering the line in all five wins. They have averaged 123 points per game there over their last seven matches, conceding over 100 only once.

West Coast are three wins from eight interstate matches this year, at -53% POT, and have only covered the line once. Six of their road games this season have gone under.

DT Talk Player Prop Bets

AFL DreamTeam Talk Bets
Heath Shaw can be very up and down on his day but this week I’m tipping it’s an ‘up week’. $2.50 for most marks is great value and against the Eagles, he should be big, just like Fremantle defender Jesse Spurr was last week when he took 10 grabs against West Coast. Stephen Coniglio won me the chocolates last week and has collected the ball 28 times or more in his last 7 games. He’s coming off back to back games of 33 possessions and at $3, it’s too good to miss.

Betting Data
2016 Line: GWS 12-7, West Coast 10-9
2016 Over/Under: GWS 9-10, West Coast 7-12

Final Thoughts

A tricky match to assess given GWS haven’t proven the most trustworthy in recent times, the flakiness of youth to the fore over the last month and a half. And West Coast’s deplorable road record is somewhat offset by how easy they’ve handled the Giants in the past.

One thing that GWS have and West Coast don’t is speed, both by foot and with ball movement, and so while each side has a dangerous forward-line, the Giants should win the midfield battle.

Given their strong recent record at the venue and the fact the Eagles lose six goals when they step on a plane, the Giants appear the safe play here.

How It’s Shaping Up
GWS by 37 points

Best Bet
GWS -24.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
Over 181.5 points ($1.85)

The Wolf’s Round 21 AFL Tips

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