AFL Preview: Bombers v Suns

AFL Preview Round 21 - Demons v Lions
AFL Preview: Round 21
Essendon v Gold Coast
1.10pm AEST, Sunday, August 14
Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
Best Bet: Gold Coast -21.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Gold Coast Total Over 105.5 ($1.93)
Tom Lynch Coleman Medal ($9)

Can Essendon pick up their second win of the season, against a lively Gold Coast?

Essendon have accepted their lot in 2016, giving effort most weeks but lacking overall class. They kicked poorly in an 11 goal loss to Geelong last week, and could have finished closer.

Gold Coast have only won one of their last four, but have performed above their station in all. Single figure losses in the last two week, to GWS and Melbourne, were not to be sneezed at. A win over Fremantle and a loss to the Dogs in Cairns were also solid performances.

Stats That Matter

Gold Coast has won their last two matches against Essendon, after losing their first four. The Suns won their Round 1 clash earlier this year, by 61 points.

Essendon have started under $4 four times this year, and yet to cover the line in this circumstance. They are 57% ATS at Etihad, against 25% ATS elsewhere.

Gold Coast have covered the line their last three matches. They are one win from seven matches interstate this year, at -14% POT and 57% ATS. They haven’t played at Etihad this season, but were -1% POT and 60% ATS from five matches there across 2014-15. 

Betting Data
2016 Line: Essendon 7-12, Gold Coast 9-10
2016 Over/Under: Essendon 12-7, Gold Coast 13-6

Final Thoughts

Gold Coast have been playing good solid football for a couple of months now, but have had enough losses during it that they shouldn’t take anything for granted here.

They have performed above their station against better sides, and now need to bring that effort on the road when expectation is high. If they can get enough of the footy forward to Tom Lynch and Peter Wright, the two Suns key forwards should combine for ten or more goals, particularly given Lynch has the Coleman medal in his sights.

If the Suns play up to their recent form, the line is easily coverable.

How It’s Shaping Up
Gold Coast by 43 points

Best Bet
Gold Coast -21.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
Gold Coast Total Over 105.5 ($1.93)
Tom Lynch Coleman Medal ($9)

The Wolf’s Round 21 AFL Tips

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