AFL Preview: Tigers v Magpies

AFL Preview Round 20 - Tigers v Magpies
AFL Preview: Round 20
Richmond v Collingwood
7.50pm AEST, Friday, August 5
MCG, Melbourne
Best Bet: Collingwood Line -15.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Under 167.5 points ($1.85)

Could another Richmond humiliation lead to the sacking of Damien Hardwick?

Form
Richmond are coming off their two heaviest defeats of the year, a 70 point loss to Hawthorn and an 88 point loss to GWS, with the Tigers having kicked only eight goals across these two matches.

Collingwood are in a solid block of form, having won four of their last six, having lost only to Adelaide and North while still showing some pluck. The secured victories over top eight sides GWS and West Coast in that run.

Stats That Matter

Richmond has won two of the last three against Collingwood, but the Pies hold an 8-2 advantage over the last 10 meetings. Collingwood recorded a one point win when they met earlier this season.

Richmond have covered the line twice in 11 MCG matches this year, at -14% POT and 36% under the total match score. They have failed to cover the line in 21 of their last 27 matches.

Collingwood are +28% POT this year, ranked #1 in the league. They are +14% POT at the MCG this season, ranked second of the teams to have played three or more games there.

DT Talk Player Prop Bets

AFL DreamTeam Talk Bets

There’s nothing better than Friday night footy from the MCG and there’s nothing better than getting your weekend started with a few winners. Taylor Adams should continue what he started last week when he had 140 Fantasy points and is paying $4 to lead that market tonight. Over the last two weeks, Richmond have given up plenty of marks to their opposition defenders and that’s where I can see Ben Reid ($3.75) really cashing in tonight. Josh Gibson and Heath Shaw have won me this category in the last two weeks against Richmond and after an equal game high seven marks last week, Reid is pretty much a sure thing.

Betting Data
2016 Line: Richmond 4-14, Collingwood 9-9
2016 Over/Under: Richmond 9-9, Collingwood 7-11

Final Thoughts

It’s hard to find a way for the Tigers to win this game, given the poor level of football they’ve played in the last two weeks, and how spiritless they were against the Giants last week.

Collingwood are getting an even contribution across their 22 in recent weeks, while Richmond are getting anything but. Richmond’s ponderously slow ball movement will play into the hands of the Pies pressure game, who will generate scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers in their forward half.

With the Tigers also struggling to score, the Pies should be able to cover the line with some ease, as most teams have done against Richmond this year.

How It’s Shaping Up
Collingwood by 52 points

Best Bet
Collingwood Line -15.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
Under 167.5 points ($1.85)

Collingwood Margin 40+ ($4.30)

The Wolf’s Round 20 AFL Tips

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