|AFL Preview: Round 20
Sydney v Port Adelaide
1.45pm AEST, Saturday, August 6
|Best Bet: Sydney Margin 1-39 ($2.15)
Other Bet: Port Handicap +24.5 ($1.95)
Port can be a dangerous foe, but any loss for Sydney from this point on puts a top four spot in jeopardy.
Sydney enjoyed hitting the expanses of Subiaco last week to record consecutive wins for the first time since Round 11, accounting for Fremantle by 90 points. Prior to that, they’d been involved in low-scoring scraps in wet SCG games, beating Carlton narrowly and losing to Hawthorn in a close one.
Port are coming off a 94 point win of their own, against Brisbane up at the Gabba, which followed a loss to GWS where they were up at half-time, a win over North at Etihad, and a respectable loss to Hawthorn.
Stats That Matter
Sydney have won four in a row over Port, and nine of the last ten. Port hasn’t won at the SCG since 2006. Neither side has topped 100 points in their last five meetings.
Sydney are 67% ATS when the home side this year. They have not lost to a non-Victorian side at the SCG since 2012. They have started $1.30 or less at the SCG seven times in the last two years, dropping two.
Port are four from seven interstate this season, at +38% POT and 57% ATS, both ranked top five in the league. They are +20% POT when interstate since 2012, ranked league second in this time.
DT Talk Player Prop Bets
Finding the most disposals in this Sydney midfield is harder to pick than a broken nose, so I’ll be focusing on other markets. Tom Mitchell ($4.25) is a handballing machine with 17, 21, 26 and 24 in his last four games. Anything in the 20’s is enough to usually win this market. He’s just getting pipped at the post but I’ll be giving him one more run this week. Luke Parker will certainly push the tackle market a $4.50. He’s had 9 and 8 tackles in his last two games and is value in a competitive field.
2016 Line: Sydney 11-7, Port 10-8
2016 Over/Under: Sydney 8-10, Port 6-12
Port travel well and have proven they can cause good sides trouble this season, and Sydney have had recent troubles at home when opposition sides play defensive style on the small SCG.
The Power are under-manned down back, so Lance Franklin will prove their biggest problem, and he has enjoyed playing Port in the past. The Sydney mids will be hoping there isn’t too much rain around so their superior ball movement can come to the fore.
The Swans should get the job done, but not by any great margin.
How It’s Shaping Up
Sydney by 17 points
Sydney Margin 1-39 ($2.15)
Other Recommended Bets
Port Handicap +24.5 ($1.95)
The Wolf’s Round 20 AFL Tips
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