|AFL Preview: Round 20
Fremantle v West Coast
4.40pm AEST, Sunday, August 7
Domain Stadium, Perth
|Best Bet: West Coast -30.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Over 160.5 points ($1.85)
West Coast are looking for form and confidence against a struggling Fremantle in this Western Derby.
Fremantle have dropped five in a row now, with their most recent loss to Sydney among the worst of the season. Prior to that, they failed against Gold Coast, Geelong and Melbourne.
West Coast had been threatening to drop a game during their five game winning streak from Round 13-18, and finally did so to Collingwood last week after capitulating in the last quarter. They are struggling to find anything like their best football.
Stats That Matter
West Coast have won the last two Western Derbies, including in Round 3 earlier this year. Prior to that, Fremantle had won six in a row.
Assessing the previous nine Derbies, going back to 2012, Fremantle are +13% POT and 56% ATS, while West Coast are -44% POT and 44% ATS.
Two of the last nine derbies have gone the way of the underdog. Three of the last four matches and five of the last seven have gone over the total match points.
2016 Line: Fremantle 7-11, West Coast 9-9
2016 Over/Under: Fremantle 7-11, West Coast 6-12
The bottom appears to have fallen out of Fremantle in recent times, but are West Coast in good enough form to take advantage of it?
The Eagles ball movement is patchy and their defence isn’t as cohesive as it was last season, but they have still had some big wins against poor sides this year, and the Dockers are in that category.
Most derbies go the way of the favourite, and nothing in Fremantle’s form inspires confidence that any sort of money should be put on them. Better off banking on a lift from the Eagles, particularly if Nic Naitanui returns.
How It’s Shaping Up
West Coast by 41 points
West Coast -30.5 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
Over 160.5 points ($1.85)
The Wolf’s Round 20 AFL Tips
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