AFL Preview: Demons v Hawks

AFL Preview Round 20 - Demons v Hawks
AFL Preview: Round 20
Melbourne v Hawthorn
2.10pm AEST, Saturday, August 6
MCG, Melbourne
Best Bet: Melbourne +34.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Melbourne WIN ($5.25)

Under 185.5 points ($1.85)

Hawthorn continues to roll on with win after win, but Melbourne will give themselves a good chance of an upset.

Form
Melbourne have lost four of their last six, with the wins over lowly Fremantle and Gold Coast, while losses have come to three top eight sides (Sydney, Adelaide, West Coast) and St Kilda at Etihad.

Hawthorn have now won nine in a row, not having lost since Round 9. Their four wins since the bye have been over Port, Sydney, Richmond and Carlton, with a couple of those being less than convincing.

Stats That Matter

Hawthorn have won 13 in a row against Melbourne, including by 18 points in Round 11 earlier this year. That game was the first time the Demons had kept Hawthorn to less than 100 points in seven matches.

Hawthorn are +16% POT overall this year, but +2% POT at the MCG. They are 43% ATS at the ground. The Hawks have started $1.30 or less 31 times at the MCG since the start of 2012, at 52% ATS, losing five of those matches.

Melbourne have won six of ten MCG matches this year, at +14% POT and 70% ATS. Seven of those ten matches have gone under the total match score.

DT Talk Player Prop Bets

AFL DreamTeam Talk Bets
Luke Hodge has been out of sorts in recent weeks finding the ball just 18, 15 and 18 times in his last three games. This is very ‘un-Hodgey’ like and at some points he’ll spark up ready for finals. If you think he can this week, then jump on him at $10 for most touches. Josh Gibson ($4.50) is ‘overs’ for most marks. He had 12 two weeks ago and even had 10 on the Demons last year.

Betting Data
2016 Line: Melbourne 11-7, Hawthorn 7-11
2016 Over/Under: Melbourne 6-12, Hawthorn 7-11

Final Thoughts

In Hawthorn’s premiership years, they have traditionally dropped a game around this time, usually against lowly opposition, almost as if by some plan of Alastair Clarkson to sharpen them up before finals.

The Hawks almost lost to Carlton last week, and are playing as if they are due to drop a game unexpectedly. Given they have a two game buffer on top of the ladder, an loss wouldn’t be disastrous. Melbourne have oscillated between good and bad football this year, and are due for a spike now. They matched up well against the Hawks last time, only going down late.

If the Demons can bring the best of their intensity, rather than the flatness we saw last week against Gold Coast, they can spring a big surprise.

How It’s Shaping Up
Melbourne by 11 points

Best Bet
Melbourne +34.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
Melbourne WIN ($5.25)
Under 185.5 points ($1.85)

The Wolf’s Round 20 AFL Tips

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