AFL Preview: Crows v Lions

AFL Preview Round 20 - Crows v Lions
AFL Preview: Round 20
Adelaide v Brisbane
7.40pm AEST, Saturday, August 6
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Best Bet: Adelaide -80.5 ($1.91)
Other: Both Teams to Score 60 Points – Yes ($1.68)

Adelaide had a big win last week, and will be looking for another one here.

Adelaide had won eight in a row before their loss to Geelong two weeks back, but had the best possible game to bounce back to the winners list when beating Essendon by an easy 82 points.

Brisbane are coming off a 94 point loss to Port, meaning the joy from their convincing Round 18 win over Essendon was short-lived. The week before that, they went down to GWS by 79 points.

Stats That Matter

Adelaide is up 7-3 in their last 10 matches against Brisbane, but have won their last four. The Crows have also won five of the last six matches at the Gabba.

The Crows have covered the line in 11 of their last 14 matches at Adelaide Oval. They are four wins from nine night matches this year, as opposed to eight from eight away from that time slot.

Brisbane has covered the line in two of their eight interstate matches this year. Six of their last seven matches have gone over the total match points.

DT Talk Player Prop Bets

AFL DreamTeam Talk Bets

He let me down last week but at $3 for most touches… I’m back on Tom Rockliff again. It’ll be tough over there in Adelaide but his record on them is unreal. He had 30 and 40 disposals in his last two games against them and last week, even in an 82pt drubbing, Merrett (31) and Goddard (29) still found plenty of the ball at Adelaide Oval. Rocky had just 1 tackle last week, his worst effort in three years. Prior to last week he was averaging 8.7 tackles in his last seven games and at $5, he’s good value to bounce back.

Betting Data
2016 Line: Adelaide 12-6, Brisbane 6-12
2016 Over/Under: Adelaide 10-8, Brisbane 13-5

Final Thoughts

Every reasonable pointer tells us that Adelaide are going to win this one easily. The Crows can score heavily, and no side gives up big totals against them like the Lions do, particularly when spirits drop.

With Sam Jacobs out injured, Stef Martin does get a chance to at least dominate the ruck to give his midfielders a chance, but Adelaide’s overall slickness once they win the ball back will see them send the ball forward often.

The lines looks coverable here, especially given they are far more likely to win by 20 points more than it, than 20 points less.

How It’s Shaping Up
Adelaide by 112 points 

Best Bet
Adelaide -80.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
Both Teams to Score 60 Points – Yes ($1.68)

The Wolf’s Round 20 AFL Tips

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