|AFL Preview: Round 20
Geelong v Essendon
3.20pm AEST, Sunday, August 7
Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
|Best Bet: Essendon Line +66.5 ($1.91)
Other: Quarter By Quarter – Ess/Gee/Gee/Gee ($9.00)
Percentage is going to be key for the top four aspirants, and Geelong needs some here.
After dropping off through the bye rounds with a couple of losses, Geelong has won three in a row, with one against lowly Fremantle, but the other two against better credentialed sides like Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs.
Essendon are on a 16 game losing streak which will in all likelihood extend through to the end of the season. Last week’s loss to Adelaide was by 82 points.
Stats That Matter
Geelong have won their last five matches against Essendon, by an average margin of 41 points. Four of those five were played at Etihad Stadium.
Geelong have won three of their four Etihad matches this season, at +15% POT, covering the line in two of them. They are 41% ATS there over the last five years, but only 13% ATS there when starting $1.30 or less.
Essendon are 50% ATS at Etihad this season, as opposed to 25% ATS elsewhere. They have been $10 underdogs eight times this year, covering the line three times.
Geelong are going to win this game, and have made no secret of the fact they know building percentage is an important factor in games such as these. They also acknowledge that this can be a dangerous mindset, which lulls players into thinking it will all just happen with minimal effort if they feel like having a day off while one the job.
Essendon made it a scrappy affair the last time these sides met, with the game still in the balance early in the last term, and may set themselves for a fight and banking on an off-day from the Cats.
The different psychologies at play here will dictate the margin, but different stats suggest backing the Bombers to get within the margin might be a good play.
How It’s Shaping Up
Geelong by 52 points
Essendon Line +66.5 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
Quarter By Quarter – Ess/Gee/Gee/Gee ($9.00)
The Wolf’s Round 20 AFL Tips
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