AFL Preview: Blues v Saints

AFL Preview Round 20 - Blues v Saints
AFL Preview: Round 20
Carlton v St Kilda
1.10pm AEST, Sunday, August 7
MCG, Melbourne
Best Bet: Carlton +10.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Under 167.5 points ($1.85)

Two up-and-coming sides are looking to stake an early claim for a rise next year.

Form
Carlton are back in form after a mid-season lull, but with no wins to show for it after three hard-fought losses to top eight sides West Coast, Sydney and Hawthorn. They haven’t won a game since Round 11.

The Saints lost to North last week, off the back of three wins in a row against the Western Bulldogs, Melbourne and Essendon, with that block of four matches all held at Etihad Stadium.

Stats That Matter

These teams have split their last ten matches 5-5, but Carlton have won four of the last five. This is their first MCG meeting since 2011.

Carlton have played at the MCG six times this year for two wins at -33% POT, covering the line four times. They have covered the line their last three games and have won as underdog four times this year.

St Kilda have played at the MCG six times under Alan Richardson, covering the line in four of them, and recording three wins at +19% POT. They have not lost as favourite this season.

Betting Data
2016 Line: Carlton 11-7, St Kilda 10-8
2016 Over/Under: Carlton 6-12, St Kilda 7-11

Final Thoughts

St Kilda have put together some sterling form at Etihad Stadium during their recent batch of form, peeling off seven wins in a row there before going down to North last week. They haven’t won away from Etihad since Round 3, which open the door for Carlton who are in form and deserve a win for their efforts.

Both sides put a premium on pressure, and while St Kilda has a more dangerous forward line, Carlton’s structure behind the ball has dulled more potent offences in recent weeks.

The Blues appeal as a value chance to cause an upset with a few things in their favour.

How It’s Shaping Up
Carlton by 14 points 

Best Bet
Carlton +10.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
Under 167.5 points ($1.85)

The Wolf’s Round 20 AFL Tips

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