|AFL Preview: Round 19
Collingwood v West Coast
4.35pm AEST, Saturday, July 30
|Best Bet: Collingwood +10.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Collingwood WIN ($2.40)
Under 175.5 points ($1.88)
Collingwood will be a difficult challenge to overcome for a West Coast winning below their best.
Collingwood have dropped their last two games after winning three in a row post their Round 13 bye. They started slowly in losses to both Adelaide and North, and even their win over GWS, but were unable to turn it around like they did against the Giants.
West Coast have won five in a row, their last two in narrow fashion to Melbourne in Perth and Carlton at the MCG. The Demons dominated every statistical category last week, and the Eagles were largely outplayed in stealing the four points.
Stats That Matter
Collingwood leads 6-4 in their last ten meetings, but West Coast has won the last three. The Pies have won all six MCG clashes in this time, with the Eagles winning when the games were played at either Etihad or Domain Stadium.
Collingwood have covered the line in four of their last five matches. They are +14% POT and 45% ATS at the MCG this year, with five wins from 11 matches. Their last six MCG games have gone under the total match score.
West Coast are three from six at the MCG under Adam Simpson, at -30% POT, 50% ATS and 83% at the under. Their overall travelling record under him is -9% POT, 43% ATS and 68% under.
DT Talk Player Prop Bets
Since returning from injury, Taylor Adams has averaged 32 touches in his last three games. He’s paying $4.50 to find the pill the most and will certainly push the 35 possession mark this week. Coming off 15 tackles, Matt Priddis is a tackle beast and has won many people lots of coin this year. At $2.60, he’s a bargain as he has laid double figure tackles in six of his last nine games.
The main question here is whether Collingwood are still holding their form from wins over Fremantle, Carlton and GWS, or have they lost it after facing Adelaide and North, where the scoreboard didn’t reflect how in those matches they were.
West Coast have struggled in the last two weeks and been lucky to win, and the Pies at the MCG is no easier than what they’ve been facing, at a venue and against an opposition where they have had trouble.
It might be a simple case of the Eagles due to lose again, and the Pies due to win again. Either way, it’s a tough game to split, and Collingwood appeals as value on that basis.
How It’s Shaping Up
Collingwood by 15 points
Collingwood +10.5 ($1.91)
The Wolf’s Round 19 AFL Tips
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