AFL Preview: Lions v Power

AFL Round 19 Preview - Lions v Power
AFL Preview: Round 19
Brisbane v Port Adelaide
7.25pm AEST, Saturday, July 30
Gabba, Brisbane
Best Bet: Port -34.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Over 198.5 points ($1.88)

Port still have a fluker’s hope for finals, but Brisbane may have found some confidence with a long-searched for win.

Brisbane claimed their first win since Round 4 against Essendon last week, picking their mark and being up for the contest early. Prior to that they had lost to GWS, but weren’t disgraced in losses to Gold Coast and Richmond.

Port has lost four of their last six, but their biggest loss in this time was by 22 points. Since their bye they have beaten Richmond and North, but lost to Hawthorn and GWS, with the inability to play four quarters their biggest issue.

Stats That Matter

Brisbane have won six of the last 10 matches between the sides. Port haven’t won at the Gabba since 2007, losing their last three matches there.

Brisbane’s last eleven matches at the Gabba have gone over the total match points. They have won one of their eight matches there this year, and only covered the line three times. They are conceding 126 points per game there in 2016.

Port have lost four matches as favourite this year, the second most of any side. They have won four of seven interstate this season, at +38% POT. Eight of their nine interstate games have been under the total match points.

DT Talk Player Prop Bets

AFL DreamTeam Talk Bets

Some may say, Rockliff at $1.70 for most touches is too short, those people obvious haven’t seen this guy play. He had 38 touches last week but the market I really like him in is ‘most kicks’ paying $5.50. Over the last two weeks he has had 24 (11 handballs) and 23 (14 handballs). That’s a complete reverse on his kick to handball ratio from the start of the year and at $5.50, that’s super odds.

Betting Data
2016 Line: Brisbane 6-11, Port 10-8
2016 Over/Under: Brisbane 12-5, Port 5-12

Final Thoughts

Port have been in better form than their recent results indicate, and this is the easiest match they’ve seen since they beat Brisbane in Round 7, when they won by 77 points.

The Power are renowned for playing a quarter or two of hot football, and against a side as defensively weak as the Lions, that could be enough to slam on 8-10 goals in half an hour. They had two seven goal terms against Brisbane last time they met.

Brisbane will have some confidence after the win last week, but they have shown that they can wilt when it becomes too hard, and we should see the same again this week.

How It’s Shaping Up
Port by 52 points

Best Bet
Port -34.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
Over 198.5 points ($1.88)
Most Goals: Jay Schulz

The Wolf’s Round 19 AFL Tips

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