AFL Preview: Kangaroos v Saints

AFL Round 19 Preview - Kangaroos v Saints
AFL Preview: Round 19
North Melbourne v St Kilda
7.25pm AEST, Saturday, July 30
Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
Best Bet: St Kilda +11.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: St Kilda WIN ($2.45)
Wire to Wire – Any Other Result ($2.00)

North was able to fend off one challenger for their eighth spot last week, and now face another.

North recorded a drought-breaking win over Collingwood last week, which followed five losses in a row, to Port, West Coast, Adelaide, Hawthorn and Geelong, as injuries cruelled the aging side.

St Kilda have won seven of their last nine matches, with the losses to Gold Coast at Metricon and the Crows at Adelaide Oval. Wins over Geelong and the Bulldogs have helped establish their bona fides.

Stats That Matter

North have won five in a row against St Kilda, after the Saints had won the previous four. North are the last team to beat St Kilda at Etihad. North are seven from 10 at Etihad this season, at +23% POT, 60% ATS and 70% at the under. At the ground against Victorian sides they are +37% POT and 71% ATS.

St Kilda have won seven matches in a row at Etihad, covering the line in six of them. Four of St Kilda’s last five wins have been as underdog. They have won six matches as underdog this season, ranked #1.

DT Talk Player Prop Bets

AFL DreamTeam Talk Bets

I’m slightly worried about Jack Steven in this game based on the fact that the Roos in round 7, focused on stopping him at all costs holding him to 15 touches. He’ll be tagged by Gibson this time and therefore I’m looking at Daniel Wells ($7) to have the most touches as I chase some value. Wells had 29 last week and is even paying $2.40 to crack the 30+ mark. Leigh Montagna had 34 possessions for 109pts early in the year against the Roos and is paying $2.30 to reach the 30 mark again, and $7 to have the most points.

Betting Data
2016 Line: North 8-9, St Kilda 10-7
2016 Over/Under: North 8-9, St Kilda 7-10

Final Thoughts

St Kilda are one of the hottest sides in the competition at the moment, particularly under the roof of Etihad where they are in a rare groove. Their pressure and speed is a trademark, turning the ball over and moving it quickly to an open and functioning forward-line.

North don’t lack for toughness, but do for foot-pace, which may get exposed on the counter. The Roos were finally able to hit the scoreboard last week, while the Saints have been able to keep teams under control and will fancy themselves again.

It would be understandable for North to be very slight favourites, but the odds look too skewed towards them based on early season form, rather than events of recent times.

How It’s Shaping Up
St Kilda by 15 points

Best Bet
St Kilda +11.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
St Kilda WIN ($2.45)
Wire to Wire – Any Other Result ($2.00)

The Wolf’s Round 19 AFL Tips

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