|AFL Preview: Round 19
Hawthorn v Carlton
2.10pm AEST, Saturday, July 30
Aurora Stadium, Launceston
|Best Bet: Carlton +46.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Hawthorn Margin 1-39 ($2.75)
Hawthorn keep winning, and take on a spirited Carlton line-up down in Tasmania.
Hawthorn are hot to trot with eight wins in a row, with the last three, over Port in Adelaide, Sydney at the SCG and Richmond by 70 points, being their most impressive of the season. They have come back from the bye in strong form.
Carlton have shown signs of life in the last two weeks, after a disappointing previous four games. They have still lost six in a row, but have gained respect with single figure losses to West Coast and Sydney in the last fortnight.
Stats That Matter
Hawthorn have won 13 in a row against Carlton, with the Blues last beating the Hawks in 2005. Hawthorn have topped 100 points the last five times they’ve met, and nine of the last ten.
Hawthorn have covered the line three matches in a row for the first time this season. They have 18 consecutive wins at Aurora Stadium, covering the line 11 times. 47% of these 18 matches have gone under the total match points.
Carlton have never played a home-and-away match in Tasmania. They have one win from four interstate matches this season, and have started between $5.75 and $10.50 in all of them.
DT Talk Player Prop Bets
After really struggling to find the pill last week, I’m seriously hoping that this week the real Luke Hodge will turn up. At long odds ($12), he’s worth a dabble for most touches in a good group. Sam Mitchell will most likely be tagged by Curnow and last year in Tassie, Hodgey played three games for totals of 31, 30 and 44. Jordan Lewis ($5) loves playing in Tassie and has averaged 116 at Aurora Stadium over the last two years. He’s in hot form and should be favourite to collect the most Fantasy points.
Hawthorn have stepped up their game in recent weeks, disposing of quality opposition interstate as well as a lowly Richmond that has had a bit of wood on them.
The Hawks are sharing the ball across half-back, and sending the ball inside fifty to the most damaging forward-line in the competition. Carlton have done well in defence, conceding less scores than the other bottom eight sides, but will have their work cut out here.
The Blues are back in form after a down period, which is the way of bottom sides carrying young players, and they can stick with the Hawks longer than Richmond did last week.
How It’s Shaping Up
Hawthorn by 32 points
Carlton +46.5 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
Hawthorn Margin 1-39 ($2.75)
The Wolf’s Round 19 AFL Tips
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