|AFL Preview: Round 19
Greater Western Sydney v Richmond
1.45pm AEST, Saturday, July 30
Manuka Oval, Canberra
|Best Bet: GWS -40.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: 2nd Half Line GWS -21.5 ($1.87)
GWS shouldn’t have too much trouble with the hapless Tigers.
GWS have won five of their last six matches, with the only loss the unexpected drop to Collingwood in Round 16. Since then, they have comfortably accounted for Brisbane in the wet, and put in a strong second half last week to defeat Port, also in torrid conditions.
Richmond has lost three of the past four, with their last two wins being over Essendon and Brisbane. In that time, they have lost to stronger teams like Port, Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn. The Hawks punished them to the tune of 70 points last week.
Stats That Matter
GWS are yet to beat Richmond in five outings, with the Tigers starting $1.30 or less in all of those matches. The two sides haven’t met in Canberra in that time.
GWS have played five times at Manuka Oval across 2015-16, winning four of them at +56% POT, covering the line in all of those wins. The Giants first ever loss from nine matches starting $1.30 or less was against Collingwood three weeks ago.
Richmond’s last nine matches have gone according to ladder position. They are league rank #18 at the line this year, and including last season have covered four of their last 20 matches, and six of their last 26.
DT Talk Player Prop Bets
Oh there it is – Heath Shaw, most marks paying $3.50. Rob a bank, or steal some kid’s lunch money, I don’t care… just get on. When Shaw isn’t tagged (which he won’t be this week), he finds the ball with ease and last week, Hawthorn defenders Gibson (12 marks) and Birchall (10 marks) did as they pleased across the back half against the Tigers. He is also paying $4 to have the most touches in group B and even had 30 of those last week.
GWS should relish getting back to dryer conditions after a couple of weeks in the wet, where their superior ball movement will prove too much for a Tigers who have arguably the slowest ball movement in the league.
The Giants have never beaten Richmond, which should add extra incentive, and spots in the GWS best 22 are never safe with strong form in the NEAFL below them. Percentage is a huge factor in the race for a top two position, so there should be no fear of complacency.
Any confidence Richmond may have had was likely belted out of them in the last quarter against Hawthorn, where they conceded nine goals.
How It’s Shaping Up
GWS by 60 points
GWS -40.5 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
2nd Half Line GWS -21.5 ($1.87)
The Wolf’s Round 19 AFL Tips
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