AFL Preview: Demons v Suns

AFL Round 19 Preview - Demons v Suns
AFL Preview: Round 19
Melbourne v Gold Coast
1.10pm AEST, Sunday, July 31
MCG, Melbourne
Best Bet: Melbourne -33.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Over 192.5 points ($1.88)

Wire to Wire: Melbourne ($1.72)

Melbourne threw away victory last week, and will be keen not to do so against easier opposition here.

Melbourne have played four matches since their bye, losing to Adelaide before beating Fremantle, and then going down to St Kilda easily and West Coast in frustrating style after dominating general play.

Gold Coast have now won three of their last four, with good wins over St Kilda, Brisbane and Fremantle interspersed with a loss to the Bulldogs in Cairns where they were far from disgraced.

Stats That Matter

The two sides have met eight times, with Melbourne holding a 5-3 advantage, including the last two. Melbourne lead 3-2 at the MCG.

Melbourne have covered the line three of their last four matches. Their record at the MCG this season is +14% POT, 78% ATS and 67% under the total match points, as opposed to -56% POT, 50% ATS and 63% at the under at other venues.

Gold Coast have won one of their last 20 interstate matches, covering the line in seven of them. Their last MCG win was Rd 5, 2014, against Melbourne.

Betting Data
2016 Line: Melbourne 11-6, Gold Coast 7-10
2016 Over/Under: Melbourne 6-11, Gold Coast 13-4

Final Thoughts

Gold Coast have been gallant under a heavy injury list in the last month, but most of these matches have been in the comfort of Metricon Stadium, and they haven’t had to leave Queensland in July at all. They have also faced sides that have been weaker than they would be through their own injuries.

Now they hit the road, where they have a poor record, and face a hungry Melbourne at their favoured MCG coming off a loss that will have stung and should produce a big performance.

The Demons should be looking to make this a free-flowing affair, banking on their deeper midfield and ability to use the space of the MCG to best effect for their forward-line to capitalize.

How It’s Shaping Up
Melbourne by 45 points

Best Bet
Melbourne -33.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
Over 192.5 points ($1.88)
Wire to Wire: Melbourne ($1.72)

The Wolf’s Round 19 AFL Tips

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