AFL Preview: Crows v Bombers

AFL Round 19 Preview - Crows v Bombers
AFL Preview: Round 19
Adelaide v Essendon
4.40pm AEST, Sunday, July 31
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Best Bet: Adelaide Team Score 121+ Points ($1.68)
Other Bet: Both Teams to Score 60 Points – No ($1.74)

Adelaide will be looking for percentage in this one.

Adelaide’s eight match winning run ended last week at the hands of Geelong down at Simonds Stadium, where they couldn’t penetrate the Cats defence.

Essendon were favoured to win their first match since Round 2 last week, but were ambushed by Brisbane early and then unable to claw their way over the course of the game. Prior to that, their form had been good with gallant losses to Richmond and St Kilda.

Stats That Matter

Adelaide have won seven of their last 10 matches against Essendon. The Bombers are yet to play at Adelaide Oval. The Crows won by 112 points in their last meeting, in Rd 20 last year.

Adelaide have failed to cover the line three of their last four matches. Since the start of 2015, they are +23% POT and 68% ATS at Adelaide Oval. They have covered the line in 10 of their last 13 matches there.

Essendon have failed to cover the line in five interstate matches this year, and have lost their last 11 matches on the road, covering in three of these. Their highest score interstate this year is 60, and the lowest score they’ve conceded is 112.

Betting Data
2016 Line: Adelaide 11-6, Essendon 6-11
2016 Over/Under: Adelaide 9-8, Essendon 11-6

Final Thoughts

Obviously this is going to be a win to Adelaide, and the margin is the only thing in question. While Essendon have been spirited in defeat for sections of this season, it has come and gone in waves, and the loss to Brisbane last week may mean we see them drop their bundle for a few weeks.

In a year when percentage has never been more decisive on the ladder, the Crows are 4-5% behind those above them on the ladder, and need to take full toll of matches like these. If they can break the Dons open early, the game should open up, and their forwards can look forward to bags of easy goals.

How It’s Shaping Up
Adelaide by 88 points

Best Bet
Adelaide Team Score 121+ Points ($1.68)

Other Recommended Bets
Both Teams to Score 60 Points – No ($1.74)

The Wolf’s Round 19 AFL Tips

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