|AFL Preview: Round 19
Geelong v Western Bulldogs
7.50pm AEST, Friday, July 29
Simonds Stadium, Geelong
|Best Bet: Geelong -23.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Under 158.5 ($1.88)
Most Goals: Tom Hawkins
Geelong have re-discovered their form, while the Dogs are injury-stricken once again.
Geelong returned to their best with an accomplished win over Adelaide last week, after three rounds of struggle when they beat Fremantle in ugly fashion, and lost to Sydney and St Kilda post- and pre-bye.
The Dogs came unstuck against the Saints last week, with an influx of in-game injuries to helping their cause. Previously they had beaten Gold Coast, Richmond and Sydney in a solid block of form.
Stats That Matter
Geelong have won nine in a row against the Bulldogs, with four of those being at Simonds Stadium. Their last two matches there were decided by 8 and 13 points. The Dogs have covered the line in their last three matches at Simonds.
The Cats are five wins from six matches at Simonds this year, at +17% POT, and have covered the line in four of them. They have covered the spread in seven of their last nine matches there, and haven’t conceded 100 points or more there in the last ten games.
The Dogs have won five of six away from Etihad this year, at +53% POT, and they have covered the line in each of these wins, including twice as underdog.
DT Talk Player Prop Bets
One man, three syllables… Dang-er-field!
He will simply dominate tonight like he did when he met the Bulldogs in round 13. He had 143 Fantasy points that day and will double your money in the same market tonight. The Bulldogs are going into this game with many big names players out, it’s like they have conceded. Expect many Geelong players to have big numbers. Based on this, Mitch Duncan is paying $4 to have 30+ touches and is my bet of the night. Finally, it is Jimmy Bartel’s 300th game and traditionally Geelong tend to look after these guys with a very padded stat line. It’s a long shot, but he’s at $9 for most disposals and even had 34 last week.
Geelong have had their ups and downs across the course of the season, but now they have come out of their latest lull period, we should be seeing them hold that form for the rest of the year.
Tom Hawkins had more impact and has a good record against the Dogs, kicking multiple goals the last five times he’s played them. The Dogs lack of size in the backline is to his advantage.
When the Cats beat the Bulldogs by 57 points only six weeks ago, it was off the back of a tough run for the Dogs where they had lost multiple players to injury. The same ingredients are in play here, and we could see a similar result.
How It’s Shaping Up
Geelong by 32 points
Geelong -23.5 ($1.91)
The Wolf’s Round 19 AFL Tips
If you are a stats guru don’t forget to check out our AFL betting database complete with historical data and stats.