AFL Preview: Swans v Blues

AFL Preview Round 18 - Swans v Carlton
AFL Preview: Round 18
Sydney v Carlton
Saturday 1.45pm AEST
at SCG, Sydney
Best Bet: 2nd Half Line Sydney -28.5 ($1.87)
Other Bet: Under 162.5 points ($1.88)

Sydney needs to keep winning to try to claw their way back into the top four.

Form

Sydney have now gone win-loss-win-loss over their last six matches, belying their reputation for consistency. They lost by less than a goal to both the Dogs and Hawks after conceding the last goal of those games, but in between beat Geelong at Simonds Stadium with rare ease.

Carlton have lost five in a row, but put in their best performance since early June last week against the Eagles. Prior to that, they had lost to Adelaide, Collingwood, GWS and St Kilda, all teams in good recent form.

Stats That Matter

Sydney have won six in a row against Carlton, with the last three being by 60 points or more. Lance Franklin has been the leading goalkicker on the ground in his last seven matches against the Blues, which dates back to 2010.

Sydney have lost five matches as favourite this season, the equal most of any side. They’ve lost three of the last four matches they started favourite. The Swans are 71% ATS at the SCG this year, and six of their seven matches there have been under the total match points.

Carlton have only won two of their last fifteen interstate games, and are 27% ATS in those matches, only covering the line twice. Six of their last nine interstate matches have gone over.

DT Talk Player Prop Bets

AFL DreamTeam Talk Bets

It’s always tough splitting the Sydney midfielders, so I’ve gone straight to the AFL Fantasy market to find Tom Mitchell ($4.25). He had a game high 143 against the Blues in round two and back at the SCG, he’ll he huge again. Last week, Mitchell had 26 handballs, yep 26 against the Hawks, eight clear of Kennedy and Parker. He’s paying a very nice $4.50 to be handball happy again. Buddy Franklin ($5.50) is always a chance to take the most marks and the way he’s been pushing up the ground in recent weeks, he’d be every chance to push double figures here.

Betting Data
2016 Line: Sydney 9-7, Carlton 9-7
2016 Over/Under: Sydney 7-9, Carlton 6-10

Final Thoughts

Sydney are going to win this game, so it’s only a question of by how much.

The Swans have put their share of weaker opposition away this year, beating Collingwood by 80 points in Round 1 and Carlton by 60 the week after. They also have big wins over Essendon and Melbourne and would have beaten Gold Coast by ten goals or more in dry conditions.

Carlton looked to find some form last week, and the smaller SCG may help their restrictive game style in defending the Swans, but also may prevent them from scoring which has been a big issue in recent times. Something like a Sydney win 100-40 looks the likely scenario.

How It’s Shaping Up
Sydney by 60 points 

Best Bet
2nd Half Line Sydney -28.5 ($1.87)

Other Recommended Bets
Under 162.5 points ($1.88)

The Wolf’s Round 18 AFL Tips

If you are a stats guru don’t forget to check out our AFL betting database complete with historical data and stats.

AFL betting stats
Discuss