|AFL Preview: Round 18
West Coast v Melbourne
Saturday 4.35pm AEST
at Domain Stadium, Perth
|Best Bet: Both Teams To Score 80 Points ($2.45)
Other Bet: West Coast -38.5 ($1.91)
West Coast has been a fearsome proposition at home this season for those in the bottom ten.
West Coast have put together four wins in a row over Brisbane, Essendon, North and Carlton, taking advantage of a draw that has opened up for, even if they haven’t been altogether convincing in doing it.
Melbourne continue to mix the good with the bad, and haven’t put together consecutive wins since Round’s 4 and 5. They looked to give up when it got tough against St Kilda last week, which followed a strong win over Fremantle in Darwin.
Stats That Matter
West Coast have won eight in a row against Melbourne, and their three wins at Domain Stadium in that time have been by an average of 76 points.
The Eagles have won 19 of their last 21 matches at Domain Stadium, covering the line in all of those wins. They haven’t lost there when starting $1.40 or under since Round 10, 2013.
Melbourne have won three of 16 interstate matches under Paul Roos, at -22% POT, 44% ATS, and 63% of matches going the under. The haven’t won at Domain Stadium since Round 11, 2004.
DT Talk Player Prop Bets
The Eagles have bought in Giles to assist Lycett in the ruck this week because they are scared, as they should be, of Max Gawn. He’s paying $4 to lead all Fantasy scorers but I think there is better value in someone like Jack Viney ($5). Viney has scored 123 and 117 in his last two games and has been on fire. He’s been boosting his score each week with tackles ($4.50) and is at good odds again this week, but needs to account for Priddis ($2.10). He’s the one I’ll be rolling with as he has had double figure tackles in five of his last eight games.
2016 Line: West Coast 10-6, Melbourne 10-6
2016 Over/Under: West Coast 6-10, Melbourne 6-10
It’s obviously hard to predict anything other than a comfortable West Coast win in this situation, and many teams are now going over to play them already beaten. If Melbourne come with an attitude to win, they can defy expectations.
The Demons beat GWS in Round 1, lost to North by less than a goal, were level with Hawthorn and three quarter time and up against Adelaide at half time. They can play good football against the best teams.
But, they can’t be trusted, while the Eagles can, especially at home. The Demons still carry a lot of inexperience, particularly down back, and the West Coast forwards know how to work together on the ground.
How It’s Shaping Up
West Coast by 34 points
Other Recommended Bets
West Coast -38.5 ($1.91)
The Wolf’s Round 18 AFL Tips
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