|AFL Preview: Round 18
Geelong v Adelaide
Saturday 7.25pm AEST
at Simonds Stadium, Geelong
|Best Bet: Adelaide +6.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Wire to Wire – Any Other Result ($1.75)
Geelong can probably kiss top four goodbye if they lose, and Adelaide may drop from second to seventh if they go down.
Geelong have fallen away after a string of impressive wins against top eight sides, falling to Geelong pre-bye, losing to Sydney post-bye, before struggling to put away the Dockers last week.
Adelaide have now won eight in a row, at an average winning margin of 45 points with the smallest victory being by 22 points. Bigger scalps have included GWS, West Coast and North, while they comfortably handled an in-form Collingwood last week.
Stats That Matter
Geelong leads Adelaide 7-3 in their last ten meetings, with the Crows losing all of their matches at Simonds stadium in that time. Geelong were the last team to beat Adelaide, by 26 points in Round 8.
The Cats have lost five matches as favourite this year, the equal most of any side. Their form at Simonds is about the same as elsewhere since the start of 2015: +2% POT at Simonds v +2% POT elsewhere, and 46% ATS in both stats.
Adelaide have the best record at the line this season. They have started underdog in seven matches this year, winning four of them. The Crows are five from eight on the road in 2016, at +4% POT and 75% ATS. 75% of their road games have gone over the total match points.
DT Talk Player Prop Bets
As expected, Dangerfield ($2.75) is very short to take out the Fantasy market here and should do it with ease. He had 129 on the Crows in round eight and this week, he’s at home where he has averaged 119 this year. Joel Selwood had a game high nine tackles last week and won me my lunch money for the week and this week he’s once again at great odds ($8) again.
Forgetting the game being played in Geelong or the Cats’ Dangerfield-inspired reputation, Adelaide have played the better football more consistently over a period of a couple of months now. If this match was played in Sydney for instance, the Crows would be favourites.
But, Adelaide are indeed due for a loss, and Geelong are due to play good football again. The Cats forward-line isn’t functioning as well as it had been earlier in the year, and the midfield and backline are struggling to create run. The Crows entire outfit is working in synch.
Geelong may be inspired by facing a team they have already beaten, but Adelaide’s value it too great to ignore.
How It’s Shaping Up
Adelaide by 11 points
Adelaide +6.5 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
Wire to Wire – Any Other Result ($1.75)
The Wolf’s Round 18 AFL Tips
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